What is the expert prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Flamengo?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Independiente Medellín vs Flamengo. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Independiente Medellín vs Flamengo Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, May 07, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Independiente Medellín		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	1.8	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	4.15	3.35	1.88	Watch
	4.43	3.43	1.92
	4.3	3.46	1.88
	4	3.2	1.85
	4.32	3.44	1.93	Watch
	4	3.6	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↓ (4.13)	3.36 ↓ (3.7)	1.9 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
22.8%

Draw
27.9%

Flamengo
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

25.5%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

25.2%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	7.7%	76.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Flamengo will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 26. Mena Perea E. 24. Ortiz J. 33. Londono D. 6. Moreno D. (C) 16. Loboa H. 8. Serna A. 11. Yony Gonzalez 19. Fydriszewski F. 18. Fabra F.	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 52. Evertton Araujo 21. Jorginho 7. Luiz Araujo 15. Carrascal J. 16. Samuel Lino 27. Bruno Henrique (C)
Substitutes
10. Catano D. 13. Chaverra F. 28. Davila A. 5. Escorcia L. 1. Ichazo S. (G) 17. Mancilla G. 20. Montano J. 31. Moreno D. 30. Palacios H. 23. Palacios M. 14. Perlaza B.	6. Ayrton Lucas 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 11. Everton 3. Leo Ortiz 75. Mariano L. 8. Niguez S. 9. Pedro 19. Plata G. 2. Varela G. 44. Vitao
Coaches
Botero J.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Flamengo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ind Medellín has had a series of home games.

In this match, Flamengo is the team to beat.

There will not play in Ind Medellín: Larrosa E. (Inactive) Mantilla K. (Injury)

There will not play in Flamengo: Lucas Paqueta (Muscle Injury) Pulgar E. (Shoulder Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ind Medellín won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

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Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Flamengo RJ: 19.61% Ind. Medellin: 1.35%

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 4.13 are the expected chance of winning is 22.87%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Flamengo - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.61%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Cusco	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Boyacá Chicó	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWW
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Flamengo - Independiente Medellín	4:1

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