Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Independiente Medellín		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.9	6.25	Watch
	1.49	4	5.75
	1.57	3.95	6	Watch
	1.54	3.95	6.46
	1.56	3.77	6.34	Watch
	1.53	3.8	6
	1.57	3.86	6.35	Watch
	1.57	3.95	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.51)	3.9 ↓ (4.15)	6.14 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
60.6%

Draw
24.1%

Once Caldas
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

22.7%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

23.6%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Chaverra L. (C) 24. Ortiz J. 33. Londono D. 6. Mosquera J. 14. Perlaza B. 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 80. Serna A. 13. Chaverra F. 9. Sandoval L. 19. Fydriszewski F.	12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 34. Cardona J. 18. Riquett J. 15. Castano J. 5. Rojas I. 6. Diaz J. 24. Palacios L. 20. Garcia Castillo A. 7. Barrios M. 17. Moreno D. (C)
Substitutes
15. Alvarado J. 71. Arizala J. 7. Berrio L. 25. Chaux E. (G) 8. Garcia M. 10. Marcus Vinicius 23. Torijano F.	9. Alvarez G. 8. Beltran E. 16. Contreras J. 2. Garcia J. 3. Malagon J. 35. Parra J. (G) 28. Zuleta M.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', Perlaza B. ↓, Berrio L. ↑,
27', 1 - 0, Arizala J. ⚽, Martinez Yepez H. E. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Chaverra F. ⚽, Mosquera J. (A),
37', Diaz J. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barrios M. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
46', Moreno D. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
57', Serna A. 🟨,
63', Rojas I. 🟨,
69', Serna A. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
69', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
73', Rojas I. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
73', Palacios L. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
83', Sandoval L. ↓, Marcus Vinicius ↑,
83', Chaverra F. ↓, Arizala J. ↑,
86', Londono D. 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ind Medellín won 1.

Recent matches Ind Medellín is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Once Caldas is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Once Caldas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ind Medellín is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Ind Medellín won 5 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 28:27 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Ind Medellín won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:12 (average 1.3:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
14.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
23.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Cali	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTTT
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
16.04.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0 ✺
12.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Unión Española - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.04.25	Once Caldas - América de Cali	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Once Caldas - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
28.09.24	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	0:2
16.03.24	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	1:2
01.10.23	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	2:2
11.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:2
24.07.22	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	1:1
04.02.22	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	2:1
17.09.21	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	3:1

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