Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Marquez C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Independiente Medellín		Deportivo La Equidad

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	8	Watch
	1.47	3.9	6.5
	1.39	4.25	8.3	Watch
	1.4	4.13	10.02
	1.11	8.57	19.72	Watch
	1.44	3.9	7
	1.39	4.47	7.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.55)	4.82 ↑ (4)	9.64 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
70.1%

Draw
20%

Deportivo La Equidad
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

23.4%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

22.4%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Medellín's performance.

Deportivo La Equidad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo La Equidad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Medellín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo La Equidad could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 13. Chaverra F. 23. Torijano F. 33. Londono D. 16. Loboa H. 14. Perlaza B. 26. Mena Perea E. 19. Fydriszewski F. 10. Barrera J. 27. Leon B.	32. Gomez Palacio Y. A. (G) 13. Abonia Y. 2. Vivas C. 4. Rodas M. (C) 26. Gomez Mosquera Y. A. 5. Masllorens J. 10. Mayo S. 14. Colorado J. 6. Copete D. 7. Micolta Piedahita J. 30. Parra Atehortua K.
Substitutes
15. Alvarado J. 71. Arizala J. 7. Berrio L. 34. Blanco I. (G) 8. Garcia M. 24. Ortiz J. 9. Sandoval L. 80. Serna A. 11. Valencia J.	1. Beltran E. (G) 18. Bolivar J. 23. Castilla J. 17. Chaverra F. 8. Monaco M. 16. Montano B. 9. Valencia J.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Merino D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Fydriszewski F. ⚽, Chaverra F. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Perlaza B. ⚽, Chaverra F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Colorado J. 🟨,
55', Copete D. ↓, Castilla J. ↑,
57', Rodas M. 🟨,
63', Chaverra L. 🟨,
65', Parra Atehortua K. ↓, Bolivar J. ↑,
68', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
68', Chaverra F. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
73', Mayo S. ↓, Chaverra F. ↑,
73', Colorado J. ↓, Monaco M. ↑,
73', Micolta Piedahita J. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
77', Vivas C. 🟨,
78', Barrera J. ↓, Berrio L. ↑,
79', Loboa H. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Leon B. ⚽,
88', Perlaza B. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
89', Chaux E. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 1, Rodas M. (Pen),
90+4', Chaverra F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 1.

Ind Medellín has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, La Equidad has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Ind Medellín is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Ind Medellín will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:18. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
18.08.25	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Llaneros SA - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
07.08.25	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.08.25	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
31.07.25	Independiente Medellín - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWT
- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
16.08.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Llaneros SA	2:1 ✺
11.08.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0 ✺
01.08.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Unión Magdalena	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Envigado - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1 ✺
23.07.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
08.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	0:0
06.10.24	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0
22.03.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	1:2
15.07.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	2:2
15.02.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	2:1
05.08.22	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
16.06.22	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	1:5

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