Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)

Referee: Palencia M. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Envigado		Deportivo La Equidad

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.28	3	3.35	Watch
	2.41	3.1	3.28
	2.58	2.75	3.14	Watch
	2.15	3	3.6
	2.4	2.98	3.25	Watch
	1.88	3.25	3.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.94)	3.01 ↓ (3.4)	3.38 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Envigado
41.2%

Draw
31.1%

Deportivo La Equidad
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

27.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

27.3%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Envigado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Envigado's form might have worsened.

Deportivo La Equidad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Envigado, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Envigado - Deportivo La Equidad Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Envigado will win (votes: 2 - 50%). La Equidad will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Envigado (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Envigado (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Vivas C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Parra Atehortua K. ↓, Monaco M. ↑,
46', Gonzalez F. ↓, Micolta Piedahita J. ↑,
46', Mayo S. ↓, Castilla J. ↑,
58', Lopez E. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
58', Hurtado W. ↓, Ramirez N. ↑,
71', Garces J. ↓, Marulanda M. ↑,
75', Bolivar J. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Monaco M. ⚽, Valencia J. (A),
83', Espana Alvarez R. C. ↓, Araujo J. ↑,
84', Uribe N. ↓, Soto T. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Palacios D. ⚽, Araujo J. (A),
90+1', Masllorens J. ↓, Copete D. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 2.

Envigado has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

La Equidad's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

La Equidad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Envigado might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Envigado won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera A
24.07.25	Independiente Medellín - Envigado	3:4 ✺
20.07.25	Envigado - Deportivo Cali	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Envigado - Fortaleza CEIF	0:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Envigado - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
11.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.4 WTLWT
- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
23.07.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportivo La Equidad	3:1 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2 ✺
11.06.25	Deportivo Pereira - Deportivo La Equidad	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
13.02.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Envigado	2:3
16.07.24	Envigado - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1
22.01.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Envigado	0:0
21.07.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Envigado	1:1
28.01.23	Envigado - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
11.09.22	Deportivo La Equidad - Envigado	0:1
12.06.22	Envigado - Deportivo La Equidad	0:3

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