Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 23 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Haro D. (Per)


	Independiente Medellín		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.87	3.5	4
	1.97	3.35	4.1
	1.89	3.69	4.22
	1.85	3.1	3.75
	1.87	3.68	3.98	Watch
	1.88	3.45	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.93)	3.48 ↑ (3.33)	4.04 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
49.8%

Draw
26.9%

Nacional Montevideo
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

27.9%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

29.5%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Independiente Medellín - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Recent matches Independiente Medellín is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Independiente Medellín could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Independiente Medellín have a series of home games.

Recently Nacional have a series of guest games.

In this match Independiente Medellín is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
20.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
17.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Unión Magdalena	4:0 ✺
14.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
11.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:2 ✺
07.05.23	Deportivo Pereira - Independiente Medellín	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWWTL
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.05.23	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	0:4 ✺
07.05.23	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.05.23	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.04.23	Nacional Montevideo - La Luz	3:0 ✺
24.04.23	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
19.04.23	Nacional Montevideo - Independiente Medellín	2:1

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