Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Defensor Sporting		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.7	3	1.91	Watch
	3.75	3.2	1.93
	3.9	3.2	1.9
	4.58	3.31	1.9
	4.32	3.33	1.87	Watch
	4	3.1	1.91
	4.31	3.34	1.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.67)	3.21 ↑ (3.14)	1.9 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
22.6%

Draw
28.7%

Nacional Montevideo
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

29.2%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

28.1%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 24. de los Santos L. 15. Frugone A. 27. Juan Jorge 6. Amaro M. 8. Wunsch N. 22. Torterolo A. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B.	1. Mejia L. (C) 13. Ancheta E. 2. Rogel A. 32. Viera T. 21. Candido C. 8. Vera M. 6. Boggio L. 27. Veron T. 7. Lopez N. 14. Lodeiro N. 20. Carneiro G.
Substitutes
33. Bruschi S. 20. Caballero M. 77. Castro F. 30. Cuello E. 7. Lozano B. 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 17. Rodriguez V. 14. Sorondo F.	34. Bais F. 30. Barcia B. 19. De Los Santos J. 10. Dos Santos A. 31. Martinez R. 17. Nunez P. 29. Pedrouzo F. 23. Rodriguez L. 77. Rodriguez N. 25. Suarez I. (G)
Coaches
Cuello R.	Viera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Boggio L. ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, Machado A. ⚽,
45+2', Candido C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lopez N. ↓, De Los Santos J. ↑,
59', Machado A. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
68', Juan Jorge 🟨,
71', Veron T. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
71', Lodeiro N. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
71', 🟨,
72', Ancheta E. 🟨,
73', Wunsch N. ↓, Bruschi S. ↑,
73', Torterolo A. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Montenegro B. ⚽,
86', Vera M. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
86', Boggio L. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
87', De los Santos G. ↓, Caballero M. ↑,
87', Juan Jorge ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
89', Barcia B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 1.

Defensor Sporting is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nacional's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Nacional is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor Sporting won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.6:1.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLLW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Nacional Montevideo	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Nacional Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
09.11.25	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	1:1
18.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1
Uruguay Copa
06.12.24	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:3 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.24	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1
10.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	3:3
04.12.23	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:0
07.05.23	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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