Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3


	Independiente Medellín		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.8	3.6	Watch
	2.45	2.8	3.2
	2.48	2.9	3.15
	2.49	2.86	3.42
	2.35	2.8	3.2
	2.42	2.94	3.26	Watch
	2.46	2.8	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.56)	2.84 ↓ (3.04)	3.3 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
38.5%

Draw
33%

San Lorenzo
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

30.7%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

31.2%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Independiente Medellín - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). San Lorenzo will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 4. Marulanda J. 29. Palacios J. 3. Moreno V. 13. Londono D. 16. Torres D. 6. Loaiza Gutierrez D. A. 8. Quinonez D. 18. Cetre E. 27. Leon Muniz B. 9. Pons L.	13. Batalla A. (G) 35. Lujan G. 2. Perez R. 22. Campi G. 47. Giay A. 5. Elias J. 50. Perruzzi F. 21. Braida M. 41. Leguizamon I. 11. Bareiro A. 10. Barrios N.
Substitutes
2. Alfonso Ciprian A. 15. Alvarado J. 30. Arizala J. 5. Cadavid A. 14. Cuesta J. 26. Gomez Mosquera Y. A. 20. Monsalve M. 35. Montano J. 31. Moreno D. 24. Ortiz J. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G)	1. Altamirano F. (G) 9. Blandi N. 15. Calcaterra D. 55. Goyeneche J. 44. Hernandez M. 32. Herrera E. 19. Insaurralde M. 58. Irala E. 8. Maroni G. 20. Martegani A. 49. Perea D. 46. Silva T.
Coaches
Arias A.	Insua R.

Preview

1st leg.

Independiente Medellín is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

San Lorenzo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente Medellín could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Copa Libertadores
28.06.23	Internacional RS - Independiente Medellín	3:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
17.06.23	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
12.06.23	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.06.23	Metropolitanos - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.06.23	Independiente Medellín - Boyacá Chicó	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWT
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.07.23	San Lorenzo - River Plate	0:0 ✺
05.07.23	Racing - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
01.07.23	San Lorenzo - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.06.23	San Lorenzo - Estudiantes de Mérida	4:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.06.23	Estudiantes La Plata - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTWWT

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