Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza)

Referee: Trucco S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN, ESPN Premium
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Independiente Rivadavia		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.45	2.95	3
	2.42	3.05	3.1	Watch
	2.44	3.1	3.36
	2.42	3.04	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3.08	3.22	Watch
	2.42	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (3.4)	3.05 ↓ (3.28)	3.18 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
39.2%

Draw
31%

Defensa y Justicia
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

28.4%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

26.4%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Rivadavia's performance.

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensa y Justicia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Rivadavia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensa y Justicia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	10%	15%

Independiente Rivadavia - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Independiente R will win (votes: 15 - 78.9%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente R: 60.6% – 97.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Independiente R (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente Rivadavia will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Centurion E. (G) 14. Gomez L. 2. Costa L. 42. Studer S. 31. Valenti M. 26. Fernandez M. 5. Bottari T. 25. Amarfil M. 8. Sequeira L. 43. Sartori F. 22. Villa S. (C)	25. Bologna E. (G) 38. Rubio T. 28. Aguilera E. 34. Delgado R. 3. Soto A. 5. Gutierrez K. (C) 8. Perez C. 26. Gonzalez F. 20. Gonzalez L. 11. Togni G. 7. Osorio A.
Substitutes
29. Abecasis L. 20. Barbieri J. 21. Cardillo M. 6. Flores S. 23. Marinelli G. (G) 24. Ortega T. 13. Osella A. 4. Peinipil M. 34. Retamar K. 16. Rodriguez L. 27. Souto P. 11. Tonetto D.	29. Gonzalez G. 24. Gonzalez M. 31. La Roza U. 16. Larralde V. 1. Masuero F. (G) 9. Miritello J. B. 33. Palavecino N. 15. Perez D. 35. Schamine B. 4. Sienra A. 22. Sosa S. 13. Souto L.
Coaches
Berti A.	de Muner P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
19', 1 - 0, Gomez L. ⚽, Fernandez M. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Perez C. ⚽, Gonzalez L. (A),
38', Sequeira L. ↓, Ortega T. ↑,
45', 1 - 2, Togni G. ⚽, Gutierrez K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Valenti M. ↓, Retamar K. ↑,
54', Rubio T. 🟨,
57', Gonzalez F. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
61', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
63', Aguilera E. 🟨,
64', Gonzalez L. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
68', Bottari T. ↓, Cardillo M. ↑,
68', Fernandez M. ↓, Barbieri J. ↑,
71', 2 - 2, Sartori F. ⚽, Retamar K. (A),
79', Osorio A. ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,
79', Perez C. ↓, Palavecino N. ↑,
79', Gutierrez K. ↓, Larralde V. ↑,
82', 3 - 2, Cardillo M. ⚽, Retamar K. (A),
84', Gomez L. ↓, Osella A. ↑,
90', Larralde V. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

Independiente R is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Independiente R is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Defensa y Justicia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Defensa y Justicia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Independiente R: Ramis V. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Defensa y Justicia: Balanta K. (Muscle Injury) Barbona D. (Knee Injury) Franco L. (Knee Injury) Sosa M. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente R won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Rivadavia - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.34%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.04.25	Central Córdoba - Independiente Rivadavia	1:2 ✺
22.04.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Aldosivi	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
16.04.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.25	Banfield - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWTT
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Racing	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.09.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Defensa y Justicia	1:0
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.03.14	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente Rivadavia	2:2
09.09.13	Independiente Rivadavia - Defensa y Justicia	1:1
10.03.13	Independiente Rivadavia - Defensa y Justicia	1:1
08.09.12	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente Rivadavia	2:3

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