Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 11 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Itabaiana		CS Alagoano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.75
	2.48	2.78	2.88	Watch
	2.54	2.91	3.11
	1.44	4.22	6.95	Watch
	2.47	2.84	2.83	Watch
	2.47	3	2.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.37)	3.09 ↑ (3)	3.57 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
41.8%

Draw
31.2%

CS Alagoano
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

30%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.7%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

CS Alagoano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CS Alagoano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CS Alagoano than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Itabaiana - CS Alagoano Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Itabaiana will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Itabaiana: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Itabaiana (1.82) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Itabaiana will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Itabaiana (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Souza (G) 4. Betao 10. Dione 3. Fredson (C) 5. Gustavo Crecci 9. Jackson 8. Karl 7. Leilson 2. Lucas Marques 11. Robinho 6. Tarcisio	1. Gabriel Felix (G) 7. Baianinho 3. Betao 10. Brayann 5. Camacho (C) 6. Enzo 2. Felipe Albuquerque 11. Guilherme Cachoeira 4. Islan 8. Leo Costa 9. Tiago Marques
Substitutes
15. Bruno Sena 18. Carlos Coppetti 19. David 23. DG 14. Elimar 20. Fabricio Oya 13. Gabriel Marques 12. Jefferson (G) 22. Joao Maranhao 16. Kauan Santos 21. Rhuan Silveira 17. Vini Locatelli	18. Cavalleri M. 14. Diogo Batista 12. Georgemy (G) 19. Igor Bahia 13. Leonan Santos 20. Luciano Naninho 22. Luiz Gustavo 17. Marcelinho 16. Roberto 99. Robinho 21. Silas 15. Vander
Coaches
Gilson Kleina	Marcio Fernandes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Karl ⚽,
16', Fredson 🟨,
19', Gustavo Crecci 🟨,
24', Baianinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Leo Costa ↓, Igor Bahia ↑,
46', Tarcisio ↓, Kauan Santos ↑,
46', Felipe Albuquerque ↓, Diogo Batista ↑,
51', Robinho 🟨,
60', Dione ↓, Carlos Coppetti ↑,
61', Robinho ↓, DG ↑,
65', Jackson 🟨,
65', Baianinho ↓, Robinho ↑,
65', Jackson ↓, David ↑,
66', Leilson ↓, Gabriel Marques ↑,
70', Leo Souza 🟨,
74', Karl ↓, Joao Maranhao ↑,
87', Tiago Marques ↓, Luciano Naninho ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 9).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

CSA may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
04.08.25	Brusque - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
27.07.25	Itabaiana - Ituano	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Londrina - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
12.07.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Anápolis - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLTL
- CS Alagoano
Copa do Brasil
07.08.25	Vasco da Gama - CS Alagoano	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
02.08.25	CS Alagoano - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	CS Alagoano - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.25	Londrina - CS Alagoano	3:1 ✺
20.07.25	CS Alagoano - Figueirense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
02.03.17	Itabaiana - CS Alagoano	2:1
11.02.17	CS Alagoano - Itabaiana	1:2

Itabaiana - CS Alagoano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide