Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 27

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: De Oliveira F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Guarani		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.88	3.3	Watch
	2.35	2.8	3.2
	2.4	2.85	3.3
	2.47	2.86	3.53
	2.36	2.81	3.5	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.32	2.94	3.41
	2.4	2.85	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.3)	2.86 ↓ (2.94)	3.36 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
39.4%

Draw
32.7%

Mirassol
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

31.8%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

31.4%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Guarani - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Guarani will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pegorari (G) 2. Heitor 23. Douglas Bacelar 13. Matheus Salustiano (C) 6. Emerson 5. Anderson Leite 18. Matheus Bueno 47. Pierre 10. Luan Dias 19. Joao Victor 99. Caio Dantas	23. Alex Muralha (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 34. Joao Victor 4. Luiz Otavio 37. Zeca 25. Neto Moura 8. Danielzinho (C) 14. Isaque 10. Chico Kim 7. Fernandinho 49. Dellatorre
Substitutes
4. Bruno 31. Douglas Borges (G) 11. Estevao 33. Gabriel Bispo 17. Jefferson 39. Lohan 12. Lucas Adell 21. Lucas Araujo 77. Marlon Maranhao 28. Pacheco 20. Reinaldo 29. Yan Henrique	2. Alex Silva 16. Bruno Matias 29. Cristian Renato 77. Iury Castilho 99. Leo Gamalho 3. Lucas Gazal 11. Negueba 1. Vanderlei (G) 31. Ze Mario
Coaches
Aal A.	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Danielzinho 🟨,
31', Anderson Leite ↓, Marlon Maranhao ↑,
45+3', 1 - 0, Joao Victor ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Isaque ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
57', Chico Kim ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
65', Joao Victor 🟨,
69', Pierre ↓, Gabriel Bispo ↑,
73', Joao Victor ↓, Pacheco ↑,
74', Heitor ↓, Reinaldo ↑,
74', Caio Dantas ↓, Lohan ↑,
79', Dellatorre ↓, Cristian Renato ↑,
79', Fernandinho ↓, Negueba ↑,
80', Matheus Bueno 🟨,
84', Pacheco 🟨,
85', Zeca 🟨,
88', Lucas Ramon ↓, Alex Silva ↑,
90+5', Negueba 🟨,
90+5', Marlon Maranhao 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guarani won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Guarani will have a mini benefit in this match.

There are questionable in Guarani: Bruno Mendes (Injury) Marcio Silva (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Guarani won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Guarani won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
14.09.24	Paysandu - Guarani	2:1 ✺
08.09.24	América Mineiro - Guarani	3:0 ✺
03.09.24	Guarani - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
21.08.24	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Chapecoense - Guarani	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLWTW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie B
14.09.24	Mirassol - Amazonas	0:0 ✺
07.09.24	Ituano - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
03.09.24	Mirassol - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
26.08.24	Paysandu - Mirassol	0:0 ✺
21.08.24	Mirassol - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.06.24	Mirassol - Guarani	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.24	Guarani - Mirassol	2:3
Brazilian Serie B
20.10.23	Mirassol - Guarani	0:0
28.06.23	Guarani - Mirassol	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.03.23	Mirassol - Guarani	1:0
03.02.22	Mirassol - Guarani	2:0
12.05.21	Mirassol - Guarani	1:0 penalties

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