Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Ituano		Retrô Brasil

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.1	4.2
	1.65	3.3	4.95	Watch
	1.83	3.27	4.68
	1.85	2.9	4.4
	1.67	3.32	5.03	Watch
	1.58	3.5	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.65)	3.23 ↓ (3.75)	4.74 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
52.7%

Draw
28.1%

Retrô Brasil
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

24.3%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

23%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ituano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Ituano - Retrô Brasil Predictions

Users Predictions: Ituano will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ituano will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vagner (G) 5. Daniel 10. Fernando Canesin 3. Grigor 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 9. Leo Passos 4. Matheus Mancini (C) 7. Neto Berola 11. Osman 8. Ramon 2. Thassio	22. Darley (G) 17. Diego Guerra 25. Eduardo 7. Fabinho (C) 18. Franco R. 28. Joao Lucas 27. Mike 4. Rayan Ribeiro 3. Robson Reis 2. Savio 99. Vagner Love
Substitutes
13. Dija 22. Gabriel Razera 21. Gustavo 12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 20. Kaio Mendes 15. Matheus Rocha 14. Nathan Silva 18. Thiago Moraes 16. Tiaguinho 19. Vinicius Popo 30. Wesley Borges (G) 17. Ze Carlos	13. Bruno Peres 20. Gledson 6. Gustavo Salomao 11. Junior Fialho 16. Luquinhas 26. Ly I. 9. Mascote 29. Mendonca 1. Paulo Gianezini (G) 19. Rayne Assis 21. Rodolfo 14. Rodrigo Varanda
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Schulle I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Eduardo 🟨,
38', Daniel 🟨,
41', Thassio 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Leo Passos ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernando Canesin ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
46', Thassio ↓, Dija ↑,
46', Eduardo ↓, Rayne Assis ↑,
46', Diego Guerra ↓, Luquinhas ↑,
55', Fabinho 🟨,
61', Luquinhas ↓, Junior Fialho ↑,
71', Neto Berola ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
72', Robson Reis ↓, Mascote ↑,
78', Mike ↓, Rodrigo Varanda ↑,
89', Leo Passos ↓, Nathan Silva ↑,
90+1', Ramon ↓, Kaio Mendes ↑,
90+4', 2 - 0, Vinicius Popo ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Ituano is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Ituano - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	Maringá - Ituano	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ituano - Floresta	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Figueirense - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTTL
- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Serie C
28.06.25	Retrô Brasil - Londrina	0:4 ✺
14.06.25	Anápolis - Retrô Brasil	0:0 ✺
31.05.25	Retrô Brasil - Guarani	0:2 ✺
25.05.25	Botafogo PB - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LTLLW

Ituano - Retrô Brasil: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide