Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 17

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Iwaki Greenfield (Iwaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Iwaki		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.4	Watch
	1.94	3.52	3.6
	1.96	3.73	3.43	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.4
	1.94	3.42	3.43	Watch
	2	3.35	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2)	3.45 ↑ (3.35)	3.46 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Iwaki
47.1%

Draw
26.5%

Matsumoto Yamaga
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

27.5%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

26.6%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Iwaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

The chances for Matsumoto Yamaga have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iwaki than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Iwaki - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Iwaki will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Sasaki M. (G) 15. Nakano H. 4. Dohana K. 35. Fukaminato S. 3. Endo R. 30. Shota K. 10. Nishitani R. 22. Takahashi Y. 27. Yamanaka A. 11. Kato T. 14. Yamaguchi D.	21. Tomizawa M. (G) 25. Shirai T. 43. Kaneko K. 16. Miyabe T. 8. Fukazawa Y. 2. Oda I. 30. Sawazaki R. 40. Higuchi D. 36. Matsumura G. 41. Murakoshi K. 19. Tanaka S.
Substitutes
39. Joo H. (G) 2. Konno I. 5. Kuwata T. 13. Murakami H. 7. Nakajima S. 32. Owie W. 29. Tanaka K.	38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 23. Koma R. (G) 44. Lee T. 27. Ninomiya J. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 31. Watanabe N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Kaneko K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', Shota K. ↓, Nakajima S. ↑,
65', Fukazawa Y. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Kato T. ⚽,
71', Nishitani R. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
71', Yamanaka A. ↓, Konno I. ↑,
74', Matsumura G. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
74', Tanaka S. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
83', Murakoshi K. 🟨,
86', Oda I. ↓, Saso K. ↑,
86', Sawazaki R. ↓, Ohashi H. ↑,
87', Yamaguchi D. ↓, Owie W. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Sasaki M. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Murakoshi K. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Nakajima S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Miyabe T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Tanaka K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Inoue A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Konno I. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Fujieda K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Owie W. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Fukazawa Y. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Iwaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Matsumoto Yamaga has had a series of home games.

Iwaki might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Iwaki won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Iwaki won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Iwaki - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.12%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Iwaki FC
Japan J2 J3 League
09.05.26	Iwaki - Ventforet Kofu	0:1 ✺
06.05.26	Omiya Ardija - Iwaki	3:2 ✺
02.05.26	Júbilo Iwata - Iwaki	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Iwaki - Gifu	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Consadole Sapporo - Iwaki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWLL
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J2 J3 League
10.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fujieda MYFC	0:1 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Gifu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:3 ✺
03.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ventforet Kofu	0:1 ✺
29.04.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 penalties ✺
26.04.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Nagano Parceiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
05.04.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Iwaki	2:3 penalties
Japan J3 League
07.08.22	Iwaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
26.06.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Iwaki	2:1

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