Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 19

Date: 22 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Júbilo Iwata		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.15
	3.21	3.36	2.13	Watch
	3.46	3.45	2.23
	3.46	3.43	2.21
	3.1	3.3	2.1
	3.38	3.49	2.16	Watch
	3.35	3.3	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (3.15)	3.37 ↑ (3.31)	2.16 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
28.3%

Draw
28%

Cerezo Osaka
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

28.7%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

28.7%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Júbilo Iwata - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawashima E. (G) 50. Uemura H. 36. Ricardo Graca 15. Suzuki K. 4. Matsubara K. 14. Matsumoto M. 16. Leo Gomes 7. Uehara R. 37. Hirakawa R. 11. Germain R. 99. Matheus Peixoto	21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 16. Okuda H. 33. Nishio R. 24. Toriumi K. 14. Funaki K. 10. Tanaka S. 25. Okuno H. 77. Fernandes L. 7. Uejo S. 27. Capixaba 9. Leo Ceara
Substitutes
19. Bruno Jose 40. Kaneko S. 28. Kanuma N. 3. Morioka R. 26. Nishikubo S. 24. Sugimoto M. (G) 10. Yamada H.	11. Croux J. 4. Hirano Y. 48. Shibayama M. 31. Shimizu K. (G) 19. Tameda H. 35. Watanabe R. 23. Yamashita T.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Kogiku A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ricardo Graca ↓, Morioka R. ↑,
46', Hirakawa R. ↓, Kaneko S. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Matsubara K. ⚽,
62', Uejo S. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
67', Okuno H. ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Leo Ceara ⚽, Fernandes L. (A),
81', Matsumoto M. ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
82', Uemura H. ↓, Nishikubo S. ↑,
89', Capixaba ↓, Croux J. ↑,
89', Tanaka S. ↓, Hirano Y. ↑,
89', Germain R. ↓, Yamada H. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Iwata won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Cerezo Osaka could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Cerezo Osaka will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Iwata won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Iwata won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
16.06.24	Tokyo - Júbilo Iwata	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
12.06.24	Júbilo Iwata - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.06.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
25.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Shonan Bellmare	3:2 ✺
19.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TLLWT
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
15.06.24	Cerezo Osaka - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
12.06.24	Cerezo Osaka - J-Lease	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.06.24	Machida Zelvia - Cerezo Osaka	2:2 ✺
05.06.24	Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia	1:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.06.24	Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
17.09.22	Júbilo Iwata - Cerezo Osaka	2:2
06.05.22	Cerezo Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	2:1
24.08.19	Júbilo Iwata - Cerezo Osaka	0:2
22.06.19	Cerezo Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	2:0
14.09.18	Cerezo Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	1:1
28.04.18	Júbilo Iwata - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
19.08.17	Júbilo Iwata - Cerezo Osaka	1:1

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