Match Info

J2 League - Round 22

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	JEF United Chiba		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.25
	2.28	3.1	3	Watch
	2.38	3.25	3.3
				Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.1
	2.27	3.23	3.13	Watch
	2.02	3.3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)	3.18 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JEF United Chiba
41.9%

Draw
29.1%

Sagan Tosu
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

28.7%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

JEF United Chiba - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. JEF United will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Tosu will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tosu: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Suarez J. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 24. Toriumi K. 13. Suzuki D. 26. Ueda Y. 7. Tanaka K. 5. Kobayashi Y. 15. Mae T. 14. Tsubaki N. 17. Hayashi M. 9. Goya H.	12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 37. Morishita R. 32. Ogawa S. 5. Nagasawa S. 2. Matsumoto N. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 77. Slivka V. 34. Yamada H.
Substitutes
99. Derek 27. Iwai T. 28. Kawano T. 18. Sugiyama N. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 25. Yasui T. 10. Yokoyama A. 11. Yonekura K. 38. Yoshida G.	26. Ando T. 44. Horigome Y. 4. Imazu Y. 33. Nishiya K. 16. Nishizawa K. 14. Sakaiya K. 47. Shinkawa S. 19. Suzuki D. 35. Uchiyama K. (G)
Coaches
Kobayashi Y.	Kogiku A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Tanaka K. ↓, Yokoyama A. ↑,
31', 0 - 1, Yamada H. ⚽, Nishikawa J. (A),
33', Mae T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mae T. ↓, Sugiyama N. ↑,
65', Yamada H. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
65', Nishikawa J. ↓, Nishizawa K. ↑,
66', Suzuki D. 🟨,
69', 0 - 2, Takahashi I. (Own goal),
72', Matsumoto N. ↓, Nishiya K. ↑,
74', Goya H. ↓, Derek ↑,
75', Hayashi M. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
83', Nagasawa S. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
84', Slivka V. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
84', Ueda Y. ↓, Iwai T. ↑,
90+4', Yonekura K. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 8).

JEF United has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tosu's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

JEF United might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, JEF United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

JEF United Chiba - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 44.82%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JEF United Chiba
Japan J2 League
28.06.25	Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	JEF United Chiba - Júbilo Iwata	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Tokushima Vortis - JEF United Chiba	3:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	JEF United Chiba - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	JEF United Chiba - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLT
- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
28.06.25	Sagan Tosu - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Mito HollyHock - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Sagan Tosu - Ehime	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	Sagan Tosu - Ehime	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
03.05.25	Sagan Tosu - JEF United Chiba	1:1

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