Match Info

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Ararat-Armenia

	1	X	2
	1.40	4.33	7.00
	1.43	5.00	6.75
	1.44	4.70	7.50
	1.42	4.95	7.12
	1.43	4.75	7.1	Watch
	1.40	4.90	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.43)	4.77 ↑ (4.75)	7.08 ↓ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
66.7%

Draw
19.9%

Ararat-Armenia
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

20%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

19.9%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

The chances for Ararat-Armenia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ararat-Armenia than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Ararat Armenia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent results have been tough for Jagiellonia (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ararat-Armenia has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ararat-Armenia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Jagiellonia as the clear and undisputed favorite.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Jagiellonia: 0.24% Ararat-Armenia: 0.12%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	1:4	-3	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.09.26	Wisła Kraków - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL
- FC Ararat-Armenia
Armenian Premier League
20.09.26	Shirak Gyumri - Ararat-Armenia	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Ararat-Armenia - Sparta Prague	1:4 ✺
Armenian Premier League
11.09.26	Ararat-Armenia - Syunik	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Ararat - Ararat-Armenia	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Pyunik - Ararat-Armenia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWWL

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