Match Info
Serie D - Round 9Date: 30 May 2026, SaturdayLocation: Arena Joinville (Joinville)
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 |
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Joinville |
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Guarany de Bagé |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.39 |
3.71 |
8.81 |
|
 |
1.43 |
3.60 |
9.23 |
 Watch |
 |
1.44 |
3.3 |
8 |
|
 |
1.4 |
3.64 |
8.85 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.42 ↓
(1.49) |
3.56 ↑
(3.5) |
8.72 ↑
(7.5) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Joinville
64.1% | Draw
25.5% | Guarany de Bagé
10.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-21.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joinville that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+7.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarany de Bagé could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Joinville - Guarany de Bagé Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 78', 1 - 0, Iago Dias ⚽,
- 82', 🟥,
- 85', 2 - 0, Iago Dias (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Joinville has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).Guarany de Bagé is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1). In this match, Joinville is the obvious favorite.In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).Including home match between the teams, Joinville won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Brazilian Serie D | | | 12.04.26 | Guarany de Bagé - Joinville | 0:0 | | 27.07.25 | Guarany de Bagé - Joinville | 2:1 | | 19.04.25 | Joinville - Guarany de Bagé | 1:0 |
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