Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel)

Referee: Van Kommer B. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4


	Jong Ajax		Jong PSV

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.9	2.45	Watch
	2.38	3.95	2.52
	2.56	4.32	2.4
	2.53	4.06	2.34	Watch
	2.31	4	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.41)	4.05 ↑ (3.97)	2.45 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
38.6%

Draw
23.1%

Jong PSV
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

23.9%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

24.7%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Jong PSV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong PSV than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Jong Ajax - Jong PSV Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Jong Ajax will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Jong PSV will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jong PSV: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jong PSV (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heerkens J. (G) 2. Appiah A. (C) 3. Johnson J. 4. Muzungu M. 5. Jetten L. 6. Verkuijl M. 10. Peters T. 8. Steur S. 7. O'Niel D. 9. Unuvar E. 11. Wolff K.	1. Smolenaars T. (G) 2. Bassey E. 3. Bresser M. 4. van der Plas S. 5. van de Riet R. 6. Bawuah J. 10. Fernandez N. 8. van den Berg J. 7. Abed T. 9. van Duiven R. (C) 11. Thomas A.
Substitutes
15. Butera E. 17. Chourak N. 21. Kalokoh D. 23. Messori L. 20. Ouazane A. 22. Ouazane Z. 12. Setford C. (G) 16. van der Lans M. 18. van der Vaart D. 19. Vink S.	17. Bahaty M. 19. Bouhoudane S. 21. Kluit F. 15. Merien F. 14. Monamay M. 16. Ngom K. (G) 22. Raap Y. 18. Sidibe S. 20. Verhulst G.
Coaches
Weijs W.	Schaars S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Abed T. ⚽, van den Berg J. (A),
45', van den Berg J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Bassey E. ↓, Raap Y. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Unuvar E. ⚽,
55', Bawuah J. 🟨,
63', Fernandez N. ↓, Verhulst G. ↑,
63', Abed T. ↓, Kluit F. ↑,
63', van der Plas S. ↓, Merien F. ↑,
72', Verkuijl M. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
72', Jetten L. ↓, Butera E. ↑,
74', O'Niel D. 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, van Duiven R. ⚽,
77', Bawuah J. ↓, Sidibe S. ↑,
84', Unuvar E. ↓, Vink S. ↑,
84', O'Niel D. ↓, Messori L. ↑,
86', van Duiven R. 🟨,
87', Peters T. ↓, Chourak N. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Steur S. ⚽, Ouazane A. (A),
90+4', Butera E. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 3.

Jong Ajax is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Jong PSV has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 38:31. (average 1.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Jong Ajax won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 2.1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Jong PSV - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.85%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
03.10.25	Jong Ajax - De Graafschap	2:2 ✺
29.09.25	Waalwijk - Jong Ajax	2:1 ✺
26.09.25	Jong Ajax - VVV-Venlo	2:4 ✺
19.09.25	Willem II - Jong Ajax	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	Jong Ajax - ADO Den Haag	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL
- Jong PSV
Dutch Eerste Divisie
03.10.25	FC Oss - Jong PSV	1:1 ✺
29.09.25	Jong PSV - MVV Maastricht	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Cambuur - Jong PSV	5:3 ✺
22.09.25	Jong PSV - Den Bosch	3:0 ✺
15.09.25	Jong PSV - Roda	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
20.01.25	Jong Ajax - Jong PSV	4:0
12.08.24	Jong PSV - Jong Ajax	2:2
15.03.24	Jong Ajax - Jong PSV	3:0
15.12.23	Jong PSV - Jong Ajax	2:2
17.04.23	Jong Ajax - Jong PSV	5:4
15.12.22	Jong PSV - Jong Ajax	2:2
07.02.22	Jong Ajax - Jong PSV	2:0

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