Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 10

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Perez M. (Ned)


	Jong Ajax		VVV-Venlo

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.90	2.15	Watch
	2.70	3.90	2.15
	2.75	3.90	2.07	Watch
	2.89	4.05	2.22
	2.75	4.38	2.12	Watch
	2.85	3.90	2.19
	2.80	3.89	2.20	Watch
	2.65	3.90	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.83)	3.98 ↓ (4.02)	2.15 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
33.5%

Draw
23.3%

VVV-Venlo
43.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33%

23.3%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

23%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

VVV-Venlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VVV-Venlo than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Jong Ajax - VVV Venlo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Venlo will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Setford C. (C) 2. van de Pavert R. 3. Spina G. 4. Muzungu M. 5. de Falco S. 6. Johnson J. 10. Monserrate J. 8. Abdalla M. 7. Salazar L. 9. Unuvar E. 11. Nash P.	13. Schoonderwaldt Y. (C) 14. Vullers R. 4. Clancy E. 33. Blancquart G. 16. Heise P. 8. M'hand I. 38. Schenkhuizen T. 7. Zuliani E. 24. Odriss M. 11. Ait Mouhou N. 17. Schmidt L. G.
Substitutes
20. Acheampong L. 18. Amour J. 16. Appiah A. 19. Camara A. 23. Da Silva P. 12. El Hani A. (G) 24. Moumane A. 22. Pugno D. 21. Simeon J. 17. van der Lans M. 25. van der Vaart D. 30. van der Velde V. (G)	31. Davis M. 1. Doornbusch T. (G) 35. el Anbri Y. 21. Gorlich L. 43. Hendrix D. 19. Janssen T. 15. Joosten T. 34. Rais A. 22. Taylan Z. (G) 9. Tsigkas M. 6. Verstraeten A.
Coaches
Garcia C.	Dijkhuizen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Zuliani E. ⚽, Heise P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', de Falco S. ↓, Amour J. ↑,
53', Monserrate J. 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Schmidt L. G. ⚽,
59', Schmidt L. G. ↓, Tsigkas M. ↑,
59', Odriss M. ↓, Verstraeten A. ↑,
59', Salazar L. ↓, Pugno D. ↑,
64', Nash P. 🟨,
65', 0 - 3, Heise P. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Johnson J. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
73', Nash P. ↓, Simeon J. ↑,
76', Pugno D. 🟥,
78', Zuliani E. ↓, Rais A. ↑,
78', M'hand I. ↓, Janssen T. ↑,
82', Schenkhuizen T. ↓, Gorlich L. ↑,
85', Unuvar E. ↓, Da Silva P. ↑,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 17th and 3rd in the Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Jong Ajax could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Jong Ajax: Bouwman A. (Knock) Faberski J. (Knee Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Jong Ajax has recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:28 (averaging 1.8:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jong Ajax against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 22:14 goals (averaging 2.4:1.6 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Venlo	12	8	1	3	34:20	14	25
15	Jong Ajax	12	3	3	6	18:29	-11	12

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Venlo: 10.44% Jong Ajax: 0.3%

Last Results with these Odds

Jong Ajax - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 33.04%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
18.09.26	Jong Ajax - Roda	0:0 ✺
14.09.26	Jong Utrecht - Jong Ajax	6:1 ✺
11.09.26	Jong Ajax - Waalwijk	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Almere City - Jong Ajax	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Jong PSV - Jong Ajax	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TLLWT
- VVV-Venlo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
04.10.26	VVV-Venlo - Roda	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Volendam - VVV-Venlo	3:2 ✺
18.09.26	Jong Utrecht - VVV-Venlo	1:3 ✺
11.09.26	VVV-Venlo - FC Oss	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Helmond Sport - VVV-Venlo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.03.26	VVV-Venlo - Jong Ajax	0:1
26.09.25	Jong Ajax - VVV-Venlo	2:4
07.03.25	VVV-Venlo - Jong Ajax	1:0
01.11.24	Jong Ajax - VVV-Venlo	0:1
03.05.24	VVV-Venlo - Jong Ajax	2:0
06.10.23	Jong Ajax - VVV-Venlo	3:0
28.04.23	VVV-Venlo - Jong Ajax	0:1

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