Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gerrets L. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Netherlands	20:00	ESPN


	Jong Ajax		De Graafschap

	1	X	2
	2.7	4.1	2.15	Watch
	3.90	1.00	2.30
	2.55	3.85	2.25	Watch
	2.77	4.26	2.21
	2.54	4.53	2.23	Watch
	2.7	4.2	2.18
	2.73	4.07	2.18	Watch
	2.55	4	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.58)	3.75 ↓ (4.32)	2.2 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
33.1%

Draw
24.7%

De Graafschap
42.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.2%

21.6%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

20.8%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Jong Ajax - De Graafschap Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Graafschap will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Setford C. (G) 2. van de Pavert R. 3. Spina G. 4. Muzungu M. 5. Amour J. 10. Monserrate J. 6. Peters T. (C) 8. Abdalla M. 7. Salazar L. 9. Unuvar E. 11. Nash P.	1. Wieggers T. (G) 16. Martens N. 3. Besselink R. 15. Kok T. 5. Schoppema L. 10. de Jong F. 23. Diemers M. (C) 8. Warmerdam D. 20. Finocchiaro G. 40. Kwint K. 11. Mero T.
Substitutes
21. Acheampong L. 16. Appiah A. 19. Camara A. 23. Da Silva P. 18. de Falco S. 12. El Hani A. (G) 20. Johnson J. 24. Moumane A. 22. Simeon J. 17. van der Lans M. 25. van der Vaart D. 30. van der Velde V. (G)	27. Ahmeti N. 14. Bolk G. 4. Hardeman J. 33. Jonkers R. (G) 9. Kania J. 17. Kaninda N. 6. Leemans C. 22. Reverson P. (G) 21. Symons K. 28. Triep J. 7. van Zijl B. 2. Wieckhoff J.
Coaches
Garcia C.	Duivenvoorden T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Muzungu M. 🟨,
21', van de Pavert R. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Unuvar E. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Warmerdam D. ⚽, Diemers M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Finocchiaro G. ↓, van Zijl B. ↑,
60', Kwint K. ↓, Kania J. ↑,
60', Schoppema L. ↓, Wieckhoff J. ↑,
72', Besselink R. 🟨,
72', Salazar L. ↓, Moumane A. ↑,
78', Amour J. ↓, de Falco S. ↑,
78', Abdalla M. ↓, Acheampong L. ↑,
78', Mero T. ↓, Ahmeti N. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Monserrate J. ⚽, van de Pavert R. (A),
85', Monserrate J. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
85', van de Pavert R. ↓, van der Lans M. ↑,
86', Kok T. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 18th and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Jong Ajax (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Graafschap shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Jong Ajax: Faberski J. (Knee Injury) Pugno D. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Graafschap: Leemans C. (Knee Injury) Meerstadt J. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Jong Ajax has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:40 (averaging 1.7:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jong Ajax against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 19:15 goals (averaging 2.1:1.7 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Jong Ajax	12	3	3	6	18:29	-11	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15:26	-11	12

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

De Graafschap: 0.69% Jong Ajax: 0.3%

Last Results with these Odds

De Graafschap - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.12%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.10.26	Jong Ajax - VVV-Venlo	0:3 ✺
18.09.26	Jong Ajax - Roda	0:0 ✺
14.09.26	Jong Utrecht - Jong Ajax	6:1 ✺
11.09.26	Jong Ajax - Waalwijk	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Almere City - Jong Ajax	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTLLW
- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.10.26	De Graafschap - Jong Utrecht	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	FC Eindhoven - De Graafschap	2:2 ✺
27.09.26	De Graafschap - Den Bosch	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	De Graafschap - NAC Breda	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Emmen - De Graafschap	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
06.02.26	De Graafschap - Jong Ajax	4:0
03.10.25	Jong Ajax - De Graafschap	2:2
19.04.25	De Graafschap - Jong Ajax	2:0
09.12.24	Jong Ajax - De Graafschap	2:0
11.03.24	De Graafschap - Jong Ajax	0:2
21.08.23	Jong Ajax - De Graafschap	1:2
13.01.23	De Graafschap - Jong Ajax	3:0

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