Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 6

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel)

Referee: Wolff A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Jong Ajax		Waalwijk

	1	X	2
	3.25	4.20	1.91	Watch
	3.10	3.80	1.93
	3.00	3.80	1.96	Watch
	3.36	4.05	1.99
	3.29	4.06	1.95	Watch
	3.30	4.00	1.95
	3.22	4.16	1.93	Watch
	3.15	3.85	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↓ (3.73)	3.99 ↑ (3.95)	1.94 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
28.9%

Draw
23.3%

Waalwijk
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

23.5%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

23.1%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Waalwijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Jong Ajax - Waalwijk Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heerkens J. (G) 2. van de Pavert R. 3. Spina G. 4. Muzungu M. 5. de Falco S. 10. Monserrate J. 6. Verkuijl M. (C) 8. Abdalla M. 7. Unuvar E. 9. Pugno D. 11. Nash P.	1. Schiks N. (G) 33. Al Mazyani F. 4. van Gelderen L. 30. de Wijs J. (C) 5. Familia-Castillo J. 7. Fage R. 8. Nap J. 6. Postma L. 20. Varela K. 27. Stokkers F. 10. van Leeuwen T.
Substitutes
21. Acheampong L. 22. Bounida R. 20. Camara A. 24. Da Silva P. 30. El Hani A. (G) 16. Frankel L. 18. Johnson J. 25. Salazar L. 12. Setford C. (G) 23. Simeon J. 17. van der Lans M. 19. Zahouani F.	25. Bakboord N. 24. Dkidak A. 55. Held N. 17. Kuijpers R. 93. Misidjan V. 13. Mulder X. (G) 16. Spenkelink M. (G) 9. van de Haar J. 3. van der Plas S. 11. van der Veen Y. 19. van Gemert H. 18. van Hedel R.
Coaches
Garcia C.	Duits S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', de Falco S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
62', Varela K. ↓, Misidjan V. ↑,
62', Fage R. ↓, van der Veen Y. ↑,
66', Stokkers F. ↓, van de Haar J. ↑,
70', Abdalla M. ↓, Acheampong L. ↑,
70', Unuvar E. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
70', van de Pavert R. ↓, Frankel L. ↑,
80', Verkuijl M. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Misidjan V. ⚽,
85', Nash P. ↓, Simeon J. ↑,
90', van de Haar J. 🟨,
90+1', 0 - 2, van der Veen Y. ⚽, Familia-Castillo J. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Jong Ajax may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Waalwijk will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Jong Ajax: Bounida R. (Injury) Faberski J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Jong Ajax: Bouwman A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Waalwijk: Zorgdrager B. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 2.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jong Ajax won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Waalwijk: 7.38% Jong Ajax: 0.25%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	4	14
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13:25	-12	8

Last Results with these Odds

Jong Ajax - the odds 3.73 are the expected chance of winning is 24.91%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Waalwijk - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.57%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
04.09.26	Almere City - Jong Ajax	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Jong PSV - Jong Ajax	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	NAC Breda - Jong Ajax	3:2 ✺
17.08.26	Jong Ajax - Emmen	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WTWLL
- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eerste Divisie
04.09.26	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Waalwijk - Jong PSV	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Helmond Sport - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Waalwijk - Dordrecht	2:2 ✺
07.08.26	Vitesse - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
22.12.25	Jong Ajax - Waalwijk	0:2
29.09.25	Waalwijk - Jong Ajax	2:1
18.01.19	Waalwijk - Jong Ajax	4:1
19.10.18	Jong Ajax - Waalwijk	2:1
26.01.18	Waalwijk - Jong Ajax	2:4
11.09.17	Jong Ajax - Waalwijk	1:1
03.02.17	Jong Ajax - Waalwijk	4:1

Jong Ajax - Waalwijk: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide