Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 5

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Referee: Higler D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Waalwijk		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.7	2.2	Watch
	2.75	3.60	2.20
	2.9	3.45	2.22	Watch
	2.9	3.81	2.28
	2.85	3.78	2.23	Watch
	2.85	3.7	2.25
	2.86	3.68	2.24	Watch
	2.75	3.6	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.68)	3.67 ↑ (3.53)	2.22 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Waalwijk
32.8%

Draw
25.4%

NAC Breda
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

25.9%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

26.9%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Waalwijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Waalwijk aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Waalwijk - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Waalwijk will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Breda will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schiks N. (G) 33. Al Mazyani F. 4. van Gelderen L. 30. de Wijs J. (C) 5. Familia-Castillo J. 6. Postma L. 8. Nap J. 7. Fage R. 10. van Leeuwen T. 20. Varela K. 27. Stokkers F.	1. Verrips M. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 4. Greiml L. 12. Van den Bergh J. 22. Hillen R. 78. Van Hecke J. 8. Jensen F. 6. Balard M. 10. Nassoh M. (C) 19. Gladon P. 9. Soumano M.
Substitutes
25. Bakboord N. 24. Dkidak A. 55. Held N. 42. Kemmeren B. 17. Kuijpers R. 13. Mulder X. (G) 16. Spenkelink M. (G) 9. van de Haar J. 3. van der Plas S. 11. van der Veen Y. 19. van Gemert H. 18. van Hedel R.	17. Bouchouari M. 35. Brouwers M. 5. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 23. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 11. Misehouy G. 34. Nazih I. 26. Reulen P. 32. van Aarst R.
Coaches
Duits S.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Hillen R. (Own goal),
28', Greiml L. 🟨,
37', Greiml L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Hillen R. ↓, Brouwers M. ↑,
46', Gladon P. ↓, Misehouy G. ↑,
46', Lucassen B. ↓, Bouchouari M. ↑,
46', Balard M. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
54', Postma L. 🟨,
56', 2 - 0, van Leeuwen T. ⚽, Familia-Castillo J. (A),
64', 2 - 1, Nassoh M. ⚽, Misehouy G. (A),
66', Ghalidi B. ↓, Nazih I. ↑,
68', Varela K. ↓, van der Veen Y. ↑,
68', Postma L. ↓, van Hedel R. ↑,
69', Varela K. 🟨,
75', 3 - 1, Al Mazyani F. ⚽, van der Veen Y. (A),
79', Nassoh M. 🟨,
79', Fage R. ↓, Dkidak A. ↑,
79', Nap J. ↓, van de Haar J. ↑,
83', 3 - 2, Nassoh M. ⚽,
90+1', Stokkers F. ↓, van der Plas S. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, de Wijs J. ⚽, Dkidak A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Waalwijk won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in Waalwijk: Zorgdrager B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Goos T. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Waalwijk won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:27. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Waalwijk won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 2:1.4).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

NAC Breda: 16.24% Waalwijk: 7.38%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	20:19	1	17
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	4	14

Last Results with these Odds

Waalwijk - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.08%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

NAC Breda - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.07%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.08.26	Waalwijk - Jong PSV	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Helmond Sport - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Waalwijk - Dordrecht	2:2 ✺
07.08.26	Vitesse - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.26	Waalwijk - AE Kifisia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTTTW
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.08.26	Roda - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	NAC Breda - Jong Ajax	3:2 ✺
14.08.26	NAC Breda - VVV-Venlo	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	FC Oss - NAC Breda	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Bolton Wanderers - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
09.02.25	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	5:0
26.10.24	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	4:1
Club Friendly
19.07.23	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	2:3
18.08.20	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	0:2
23.07.19	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	0:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
25.09.18	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	2:0
Club Friendly
22.07.17	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	2:1

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