Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EERSTE DIVISIE - ROUND 23

Date: 6 February 2023, Monday

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel)

Referee: Teuben S. (Ned)


	Jong Ajax		Zwolle

	1	X	2
	7.5	5.25	1.36
	6	5	1.38
	6	5.25	1.4
	4.4	4.2	1.57
	6.41	5.61	1.42
	6.5	4.75	1.36
	6.45	5.45	1.39	Watch
	6	5.2	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.16 ↑ (3.7)	5.09 ↑ (3.75)	1.41 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
15.2%

Draw
18.4%

Zwolle
66.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

24.3%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

24%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong Ajax's form might have worsened.

Zwolle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zwolle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jong Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zwolle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	13.6%	59.1%

Jong Ajax - Zwolle Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Jong Ajax will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). Zwolle will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zwolle: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).

Jong Ajax is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Zwolle is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Jong Ajax could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Zwolle is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Jong Ajax won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.01.23	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	1:1 ✺
23.01.23	Jong Ajax - Roda	1:2 ✺
13.01.23	De Graafschap - Jong Ajax	3:0 ✺
06.01.23	Jong Ajax - FC Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
15.12.22	Jong PSV - Jong Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLLTT
- PEC Zwolle
Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.01.23	Roda - Zwolle	1:2 ✺
27.01.23	Zwolle - FC Oss	4:1 ✺
20.01.23	Zwolle - VVV-Venlo	2:0 ✺
15.01.23	Heracles Almelo - Zwolle	0:3 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
12.01.23	Feyenoord - Zwolle	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.09.22	Zwolle - Jong Ajax	1:1

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