Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 17

Date: 24 November 2025, Monday

Location: GS Staalwerken Stadion (Helmond)

Referee: Kuipers J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2


	Helmond Sport		Jong Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	5.75	Watch
	1.49	4.7	5.4
	1.52	4.75	5.67
	1.68	4.09	4.34	Watch
	1.51	4.45	5.38	Watch
	1.71	4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.68)	4.42 ↑ (4.09)	5.11 ↑ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Helmond Sport
60.3%

Draw
21.3%

Jong Ajax
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

22.8%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

21.7%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Helmond Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	12.5%	18.7%

Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Helmond Sport will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Jong Ajax will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Helmond Sport: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1, 1st Half - Helmond Sport (4.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Helmond Sport (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Helmond Sport (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Helmond Sport (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Helmond Sport (2.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 2nd Half - Helmond Sport (3.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Helmond Sport will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Helmond Sport (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergsen M. (G) 24. Et Taibi A. 3. Van Den Eynden F. (C) 28. Vos D. 5. Poll T. 22. Dizdarevic A. 26. Makanza N. 36. Leipold A. 11. Daneels L. 27. Absalem A. 16. Lukowicz M.	1. Reverson P. (G) 2. Appiah A. 3. van der Lans M. 4. Amour J. 5. Butera E. 6. Peters T. 8. Vink S. 7. Wolff K. 10. Chourak N. (C) 11. O'Niel D. 9. Konadu D.
Substitutes
23. Aben K. (G) 9. Bajrami L. 34. Essakkati T. 47. Geerts D. 41. Geerts J. 19. Ingason H. 4. Koglin B. 6. Ludwig M. 2. Ogenia J. 17. Semic L. 21. Wentges H. (G)	19. Abildgaard L. 17. de Falco S. 20. Kalokoh D. 15. Kasanwirjo K. 21. Ouazane Z. 18. Romers T. 12. Setford C. (G) 16. Tilborg S.
Coaches
Seegers J.	Weijs W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Lukowicz M. ⚽, Vos D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Appiah A. ↓, Kasanwirjo K. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Makanza N. ⚽, Leipold A. (A),
56', Absalem A. ↓, Essakkati T. ↑,
62', Wolff K. ↓, Abildgaard L. ↑,
62', Konadu D. ↓, Kalokoh D. ↑,
73', Leipold A. ↓, Ogenia J. ↑,
73', Ingason H. ↓, Ludwig M. ↑,
74', O'Niel D. ↓, Ouazane Z. ↑,
74', Lukowicz M. 🟨,
76', 2 - 1, Kalokoh D. ⚽, Vink S. (A),
82', Peters T. ↓, Romers T. ↑,
87', Lukowicz M. ↓, Bajrami L. ↑,
87', Makanza N. ↓, Semic L. ↑,
90+4', Ludwig M. 🟨,
90+5', Bergsen M. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Helmond Sport is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Helmond Sport won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.5:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.11.25	De Graafschap - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Helmond Sport - Jong PSV	2:3 ✺
31.10.25	FC Oss - Helmond Sport	0:3 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
28.10.25	Helmond Sport - Zwolle	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.10.25	Helmond Sport - Dordrecht	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.11.25	Jong Ajax - FC Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
07.11.25	Jong Ajax - Dordrecht	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Cambuur - Jong Ajax	4:1 ✺
24.10.25	Jong Ajax - Emmen	0:1 ✺
21.10.25	FC Oss - Jong Ajax	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.04.25	Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport	1:0
04.10.24	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	1:1
19.04.24	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	3:1
27.11.23	Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport	4:1
27.01.23	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	1:1
07.10.22	Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport	0:1
20.12.21	Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport	1:1

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