Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Juárez)

Referee: Santander Aguirre L. E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Juárez		Mazatlan

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.9	5.5
	1.87	3.4	4.1
	1.65	3.7	5.4
	1.67	3.85	5.81
	1.24	5.60	12.60	Watch
	1.8	3.2	3.9
	1.62	3.9	5.5	Watch
	2.3	3.3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.31)	3.86 ↑ (3.28)	5.73 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juárez
57.3%

Draw
25.5%

Mazatlan
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.5%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

27.5%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juárez's performance.

Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mazatlan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juárez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mazatlan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.5%	4.5%	3%

Juárez - Mazatlan Predictions

Users Predictions: 66 users predict this event. Juárez will win (votes: 61 - 92.4%). Mazatlan will win (votes: 2 - 3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Juárez: 86% – 98.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Juárez (2.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Juárez will win (47 of 50 users predict this - 94%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 51 Selected Experts predict this event. Juárez (votes: 48 - 94.1%). Mazatlan (votes: 1 - 2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 3.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jurado S. (C) 26. Manriquez J. 3. Mosquera M. 19. Estupinan O. 4. Mayorga A. 17. Pizarro R. 5. Garcia D. 13. Fulgencio R. 21. Ricardinho 9. Madson 18. Martinez Yepez H. E.	1. Gutierrez D. (G) 11. Barcenas Y. 5. Almada F. 20. Lainez M. 8. Fierro S. 23. Sierra J. 199. Gonzalez I. 19. Merolla L. 10. Benedetti N. (C) 26. Leyva A. 90. Fabio Gomes
Substitutes
24. Diaz B. (G) 8. Guilherme Castilho 208. Larios I. 237. Lopez E. 2. Murillo J. 33. Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 11. Puma 183. Silva L. 10. Villalpando D. 29. Zaldivar A.	187. Aguas B. 7. Dudu 2. Garcia J. 25. Godinez S. 28. Hernandez D. 6. Meraz R. 34. Moreno Villegas O. F. 33. Rodriguez R. (G) 18. Torres A. 14. Zaleta M.
Coaches
Varini M.	Siboldi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Estupinan O. (Pen),
11', Ricardinho 🟨,
17', Merolla L. 🟨,
33', Gonzalez I. 🟨,
45', Lainez M. 🟨,
45+3', Martinez Yepez H. E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ricardinho ↓, Villalpando D. ↑,
46', Gonzalez I. ↓, Dudu ↑,
46', Lainez M. ↓, Zaleta M. ↑,
46', Leyva A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
50', Almada F. 🟨,
63', Fierro S. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
63', Estupinan O. ↓, Puma ↑,
63', Fulgencio R. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
73', Mayorga A. 🟨,
82', Benedetti N. ↓, Meraz R. ↑,
84', Pizarro R. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
90+4', Madson ↓, Lopez E. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Juárez is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Mazatlan: Colula B. (Red Card) Herrera A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Juárez: Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Murillo J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Intriago J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Juárez won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
22.08.25	Juárez - Santos Laguna	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Juárez	1:2 ✺
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	New York Red Bulls - Juárez	2:1 penalties ✺
03.08.25	Cincinnati - Juárez	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WWLLW
- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
23.08.25	Mazatlan - Tigres UANL	2:2 ✺
17.08.25	Monterrey - Mazatlan	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.25	Mazatlan - San Diego	0:2 ✺
01.08.25	Houston Dynamo - Mazatlan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
10.01.25	Mazatlan - Juárez	1:1
13.09.24	Juárez - Mazatlan	1:0
19.04.24	Mazatlan - Juárez	0:2
01.09.23	Juárez - Mazatlan	3:1
CONCACAF League Cup
25.07.23	Mazatlan - Juárez	2:1 penalties
Mexican Liga MX
03.02.23	Mazatlan - Juárez	2:3
20.08.22	Juárez - Mazatlan	1:1

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