Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 29

Date: 16 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)


	Júbilo Iwata		Yokohama F. Marinos

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.75	2.1	Watch
	2.95	3.6	2.15
	2.97	3.7	2.13	Watch
	3.25	3.85	2.17
	3.14	3.79	2.14	Watch
	2.75	3.7	2.15
	2.93	3.85	2.24	Watch
	3	3.75	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.86)	3.75 ↓ (4.03)	2.15 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
31.2%

Draw
25.1%

Yokohama F. Marinos
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

23.6%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

23%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Júbilo Iwata's performance.

Yokohama F. Marinos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Yokohama F. Marinos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Júbilo Iwata that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yokohama F. Marinos than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Yokohama F. Marinos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Júbilo Iwata - Yokohama F. Marinos Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Yokohama FM will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iwata: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eiji Kawashima 4. Ko Matsubara 36. Ricardo Queiroz de Alencastro Graca 32. Hassan Hilo 50. Hiroto Uemura 23. Jordy Croux 14. Masaya Matsumoto 25. Shun Nakamura 16. Leonardo da Silva Gomes 11. Ryo Germain 55. Ryo Watanabe	21. Hiroki Iikura 27. Ken Matsubara 5. Carlos Eduardo Bendini Giusti D. 4. Shinnosuke Hatanaka 2. Katsuya Nagato 7. Jose Elber Pimentel da Silva 8. Takuya Kida 999. Takuma Nishimura 11. Yan Matheus Santos Souza 6. Kota Watanabe 10. Anderson Jose Lopes de Souza
Substitutes
10. Hiroki Yamada 15. Kaito Suzuki 39. Koshiro Sumi 99. Matheus Vieira Campos Peixoto 21. Ryuki Miura 26. Shunsuke Nishikubo 31. Yosuke Furukawa	14. Asahi Uenaka 20. Jun Amano 17. Kenta Inoue 16. Ren Kato 41. Riku Terakado 28. Riku Yamane 23. Ryo Miyaichi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Croux J. ⚽, Watanabe R. (A),
45+2', Nishimura T. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Anderson Lopes ⚽, Nagato K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', 1 - 2, Nishimura T. ⚽,
55', Matsumoto M. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
55', Nakamura S. ↓, Yamada H. ↑,
59', Leo Gomes 🟨,
61', Nishimura T. ↓, Uenaka A. ↑,
64', 1 - 3, Anderson Lopes ⚽,
66', Leo Gomes ↓, Hirakawa R. ↑,
66', Watanabe R. ↓, Takahata K. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Anderson Lopes ⚽,
72', Elber ↓, Miyaichi R. ↑,
72', Matsubara K. ↓, Sakakibara K. ↑,
83', 2 - 4, Germain R. ⚽, Matsubara K. (A),
87', Watanabe K. ↓, Mizunuma K. ↑,
87', Yan ↓, Inoue K. ↑,
87', Matsubara K. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 4, Germain R. ⚽, Fujikawa K. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Iwata won 1.

Recent matches Iwata is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Yokohama FM is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Iwata could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Yokohama FM is a favorite.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Iwata won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 12-31.

Including matches at home between the teams Iwata won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 4-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
09.11.24	Júbilo Iwata - Gamba Osaka	3:4 ✺
01.11.24	Vissel Kobe - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
19.10.24	Cerezo Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
06.10.24	Júbilo Iwata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
28.09.24	Nagoya Grampus - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLL
- Yokohama F. Marinos
Japan J1 League
09.11.24	Sagan Tosu - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
06.11.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Buriram United	5:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
30.10.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.10.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Gamba Osaka	2:3 ET ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Shandong Taishan - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
03.05.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Júbilo Iwata	1:1
Japan J League Cup
19.04.23	Júbilo Iwata - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:1
08.03.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Júbilo Iwata	1:0
Japan J1 League
12.10.22	Yokohama F. Marinos - Júbilo Iwata	0:1
29.05.22	Júbilo Iwata - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:2
05.10.19	Júbilo Iwata - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:2
26.05.19	Yokohama F. Marinos - Júbilo Iwata	4:0

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