Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 36

Date: 9 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball, QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Yokohama F. Marinos

	1	X	2
	3.2	4	2	Watch
	3.1	4	2
	3.07	3.95	1.98	Watch
	3.27	4.3	2.06
	3.22	4.22	1.99	Watch
	3	3.9	1.95
	3.27	4.08	2.02	Watch
	3.1	4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (3.07)	4.06 ↑ (4.02)	2 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
29.8%

Draw
23.2%

Yokohama F. Marinos
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

23.4%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

23%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Yokohama F. Marinos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yokohama F. Marinos than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Sagan Tosu - Yokohama F. Marinos Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Yokohama FM will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Yokohama FM: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Imazu Y. 3. Kimura S. 28. Maruhashi Y. 8. Nakahara H. 33. Nishiya K. 6. Fukuta A. 77. Slivka V. 47. Suzuki D. 22. Togashi C.	21. Iikura H. (G) 13. Koike R. 4. Hatanaka S. 39. Watanabe T. 2. Nagato K. 28. Yamane R. 6. Watanabe K. 9. Nishimura T. 11. Yan 10. Anderson Lopes 7. Elber
Substitutes
70. Jaja 36. Kitajima F. 31. Okamoto M. (G) 32. Sakaiya K. 37. Terayama T. 25. Watanabe R. 2. Yamazaki K.	20. Amano J. 45. Aziangbe K. 5. Eduardo 17. Inoue K. 18. Mizunuma K. 31. Shirasaki F. (G) 14. Uenaka A.
Coaches
Kitani K.	Hutchinson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Watanabe T. 🟨,
20', Nishiya K. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Harada W. ⚽, Nishiya K. (A),
33', Harada W. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Nishimura T. ⚽, Koike R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Suzuki D. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
55', Fukuta A. ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
55', Maruhashi Y. ↓, Kitajima F. ↑,
59', Watanabe T. ↓, Eduardo ↑,
59', Elber ↓, Inoue K. ↑,
69', Yamane R. ↓, Amano J. ↑,
78', Togashi C. ↓, Jaja ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Anderson Lopes ⚽, Amano J. (A),
82', Nishiya K. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
86', Nishimura T. ↓, Uenaka A. ↑,
86', Yan ↓, Mizunuma K. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 15).

Tosu is Relegated to J2 League

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Yokohama FM could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Yokohama FM have a series of home games.

Yokohama FM will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Tosu: Honda F. (Knee Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tosu won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 17:34 (average 0.9:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:21 (average 1.1:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
03.11.24	Sagan Tosu - Machida Zelvia	2:1 ✺
19.10.24	Kyoto Sanga - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
05.10.24	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
22.09.24	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLTTL
- Yokohama F. Marinos
AFC Champions League
06.11.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Buriram United	5:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
30.10.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.10.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Gamba Osaka	2:3 ET ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Shandong Taishan - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
18.10.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Albirex Niigata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
03.07.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sagan Tosu	0:1
15.09.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sagan Tosu	1:1
Japan J League Cup
18.06.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sagan Tosu	6:1
Japan J1 League
03.05.23	Sagan Tosu - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:3
Japan J League Cup
26.03.23	Sagan Tosu - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:2
Japan J1 League
16.07.22	Sagan Tosu - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:2
18.03.22	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sagan Tosu	0:0

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