Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 15

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.8
	2.05	3	3.35	Watch
	2.03	3.24	3.7
	2.25	3.03	3.39	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.5
	2.05	3.58	3.33	Watch
	2	3.15	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (2)	3.17 ↑ (3.15)	3.54 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
45.2%

Draw
28.9%

Oita Trinita
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

29.3%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

28.5%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Kagoshima United - Oita Trinita Predictions

Users Predictions: Kagoshima United will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Kawakami K. (G) 16. Muramatsu K. 35. Egawa G. 5. Yamada Y. 3. Sugii H. 2. Saga R. 8. Fujimura K. 14. Yoshio K. 20. Endo M. 55. Nakayama K. 18. Kawamura K.	22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 33. Miyakawa A. 31. Matheus Pereira 6. Misao Y. 7. Yoshida M. 8. Sakakibara K. 18. Nodake J. 14. Utsumoto S. 9. Arima K. 88. Patrick Verhon 13. Isa K.
Substitutes
44. Aoki Y. 9. Arita R. 11. Fukuda M. 4. Hirose K. 73. Kumakura T. (G) 41. Mishina N. 10. Take S. 39. Toyama T. 32. Umeki K.	17. Kim Hyun-woo 37. Kimoto M. 20. Kimoto T. 2. Okamoto T. 1. Tanaka Y. (G) 30. Tone I. 72. Yamaguchi T. 25. Yamazaki T. 15. Yashiki Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Patrick Verhon ⚽, Utsumoto S. (A),
68', Kawamura K. ↓, Take S. ↑,
68', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
72', Fujimura K. 🟨,
76', Nakayama K. ↓, Arita R. ↑,
76', Fujimura K. ↓, Umeki K. ↑,
76', Muramatsu K. ↓, Aoki Y. ↑,
78', Isa K. ↓, Kim Hyun-woo ↑,
78', Patrick Verhon ↓, Kimoto M. ↑,
88', Sakakibara K. ↓, Yamaguchi T. ↑,
90+1', Yoshida M. ↓, Okamoto T. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

In recent matches, Kagoshima United has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oita Trinita is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Kagoshima United is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Kagoshima United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Kagoshima United - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.12%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J2 J3 League
03.05.26	Ryūkyū - Kagoshima United	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Kagoshima United - Sagan Tosu	2:1 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kagoshima United	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Kagoshima United	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Kagoshima United - Gainare Tottori	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLLW
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 J3 League
03.05.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Oita Trinita	2:1 ✺
29.04.26	Oita Trinita - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Ryūkyū - Oita Trinita	1:0 penalties ✺
19.04.26	Reilac Shiga - Oita Trinita	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Oita Trinita - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
08.03.26	Oita Trinita - Kagoshima United	1:0 penalties
Japan J2 League
22.06.24	Kagoshima United - Oita Trinita	3:0
Japan Emperors Cup
12.06.24	Oita Trinita - Kagoshima United	1:0
Japan J2 League
20.03.24	Oita Trinita - Kagoshima United	3:0

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