Match Info

J3 League - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Toho (Fukushima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fukushima United		Kagoshima United

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	1.78
	4.35	3.9	1.6
	4.7	4.18	1.63
	4.02	4.06	1.72	Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.8
	4.39	4.29	1.65	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (2.72)	3.83 ↑ (3.13)	1.79 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fukushima United
23.8%

Draw
24.3%

Kagoshima United
52%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

29.2%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

28.7%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fukushima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fukushima United's form might have worsened.

Kagoshima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kagoshima United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fukushima United than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fukushima United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kagoshima United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Fukushima United - Kagoshima United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fukushima United will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Kagoshima United will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kagoshima United: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kagoshima United (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.75 - Fukushima United (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Fukushima United (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fukushima United (votes: 2 - 50%). Kagoshima United (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ueda T. (G) 28. Suzu N. 17. Fujitani T. 25. Toma H. 3. Matsunagane Y. 7. Harigaya T. 30. Kano K. 6. Uehata U. 11. Ashibe K. 40. Higuchi H. 10. Mori K.	1. Fujishima E. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 4. Hirose K. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 14. Yoshio K. 27. Yamaguchi T. 5. Gaudencio 20. Endo M. 13. Kondo Y. 18. Kawamura K.
Substitutes
23. Anzai T. 20. Jojo K. 39. Nakagawa S. (G) 14. Nakamura T. 55. Shibata T. 9. Shimizu K. 18. Yajima K. 2. Yamada M. 8. Yoshinaga H.	8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 92. Nduka C. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 21. Soma J. 10. Take S. 6. Watanabe E. 16. Yamauchi K. (G) 36. Yonezawa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Kano K. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Kawamura K. ⚽, Yamaguchi T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 1 - 2, Kondo Y. ⚽,
51', Gaudencio 🟨,
61', Kondo Y. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
61', Gaudencio ↓, Watanabe E. ↑,
63', Kano K. ↓, Jojo K. ↑,
64', Higuchi H. ↓, Shimizu K. ↑,
64', Fujitani T. ↓, Yamada M. ↑,
67', Mori K. 🟨,
70', Ashibe K. ↓, Yoshinaga H. ↑,
72', Toma H. 🟨,
77', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
77', Yoshio K. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
77', Suzu N. ↓, Shibata T. ↑,
82', Yoshinaga H. 🟨,
86', Kawamura K. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
90+2', Aoki Y. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Shimizu K. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fukushima United won 0.

Fukushima United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kagoshima United is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fukushima United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Kagoshima United might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fukushima United won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:22. (average 0.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fukushima United won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Fukushima United - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.57%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fukushima United
Japan J3 League
24.08.25	Gifu - Fukushima United	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Kashima Antlers - Fukushima United	4:4 ✺
Japan J3 League
16.08.25	Fukushima United - Tochigi City	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Kochi United - Fukushima United	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Fukushima United - Ryūkyū	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.8 WTTLT
- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
24.08.25	Kagoshima United - Nagano Parceiro	6:0 ✺
16.08.25	Kagoshima United - Sagamihara	3:0 ✺
26.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kagoshima United	2:3 ✺
21.07.25	Kagoshima United - Osaka	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
17.05.25	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	5:0
29.10.23	Fukushima United - Kagoshima United	0:1
09.07.23	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	3:1
23.10.22	Fukushima United - Kagoshima United	1:1
09.07.22	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	2:1
10.10.21	Fukushima United - Kagoshima United	1:1
28.03.21	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	2:0

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