The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Kairat 71.2%
Draw 18.7%
Shakhter Karagandy 10.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
61%
23%
15.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
61.5%
22.8%
15.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kairat's performance.
Shakhter Karagandy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shakhter Karagandy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-9.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kairat that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhter Karagandy than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shakhter Karagandy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Kairat - Shakhter Karagandy Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Ulyanov V. (G) 25. Shirobokov A. 5. Vasin V. (C) 15. Arad O. 4. Kasabulat D. 22. Seydakhmet E. 23. Ulshin A. 6. Sadybekov A. 3. Yuldoshev I. 11. Paulo J. 19. Elder Santana
40. Tsuprikov E. (G) 15. Savkiv B. 44. Tyulyubay A. 5. Stamenkovic F. 4. Ryzhuk D. 2. Alishauskas E. 23. Tutkyshev R. 88. Canas R. 8. Nazymkhanov A. 10. Ashortia I. 29. Takhanov D.
Substitutes
29. Askarov S. 13. Kurgin L. 24. Mrynskiy A. 27. Pivkin N. (G) 17. Popov S. 20. Sergeev D. 9. Shvyrev V. 18. Trufanov Y. 1. Ustimenko D. (G) 7. Zaria G.
11. Abdulla A. 80. Asprilla J. 20. Bachek D. 30. Bougnone A. 6. Cukovic M. 17. Flyuk S. 68. Migunov A. 1. Mostovei I. (G) 9. Tattybaev A. 3. Tolordava A. 27. Zubaydilda S.
Coaches
Kerzhakov A.
Finonchenko A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Sadybekov A. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Yuldoshev I. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Ashortia I. ⚽,
38', Seydakhmet E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Alishauskas E. ↓, Cukovic M. ↑,
46', Tutkyshev R. ↓, Bougnone A. ↑,
48', Tyulyubay A. 🟨,
56', Takhanov D. ↓, Abdulla A. ↑,
65', 2 - 2, Ashortia I. ⚽,
67', Abdulla A. 🟨,
68', Tyulyubay A. ↓, Tolordava A. ↑,
68', Canas R. 🟨,
70', Yuldoshev I. 🟨,
72', Arad O. 🟨,
73', Ulshin A. ↓, Zaria G. ↑,
77', 3 - 2, Zaria G. (Pen),
78', Stamenkovic F. 🟨,
81', 4 - 2, Elder Santana ⚽,
82', Paulo J. ↓, Shvyrev V. ↑,
88', Seydakhmet E. ↓, Mrynskiy A. ↑,
88', Sadybekov A. ↓, Sergeev D. ↑,
90+3', Shvyrev V. 🟨,
Preview
This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 4 and 12).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Kairat won 3.
Recent matches Kairat is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Shakhter Karagandy is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recently Kairat have a series of guest games.
In this match Kairat is the unquestionable favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Kairat won 12 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 41-15.
Including matches at home between the teams Kairat won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 21-9.
Watch
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Ulyanov V. (G) 
Shirobokov A. 
Arad O. 
Yuldoshev I. 
Paulo J. 
Stamenkovic F. 
Ryzhuk D. 
Canas R. 
Ashortia I. 
Bougnone A. 
Cukovic M. 
Mostovei I. (G) 
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