Match Info

Svenska Cupen - Qualification - Final

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Tingvalla IP (Karlstad)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	SportExpressen Play


	Karlstad		Umeå

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	5
	2.05	3.1	3.25
	1.46	4.25	5.4
	1.52	4.18	5.03
	2.05	3.1	3.3
	1.53	4.1	5.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.98)	3.79 ↑ (3.6)	4.57 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karlstad
55.1%

Draw
24.6%

Umeå
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

25.2%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

24.3%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karlstad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Karlstad's performance.

Umeå has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Umeå might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlstad than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Karlstad that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umeå than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Umeå could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Karlstad - Umeå Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Karlstad will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Karlstad will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Carstrom J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', 2 - 0, Adewale I. ⚽,
72', 2 - 1, Forsman S. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karlstad won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Karlstad might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Karlstad won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Karlstad won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 2.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Karlstad
Swedish Division 1 Norra
16.08.25	Stocksund - Karlstad	1:4 ✺
10.08.25	Karlstad - Team TG	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	United Nordic - Karlstad	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Karlstad - Gefle	2:2 ✺
22.06.25	Karlstad - AFC Eskilstuna	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWTTL
- Umeå FC
Swedish Superettan
16.08.25	Umeå - Kalmar	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	Trelleborg - Umeå	0:2 ✺
04.08.25	Umeå - Falkenberg	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Brage - Umeå	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	Umeå - Örebro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
26.10.24	Karlstad - Umeå	3:4
14.04.24	Umeå - Karlstad	5:2
16.09.23	Karlstad - Umeå	2:2
21.05.23	Umeå - Karlstad	3:0
30.10.22	Umeå - Karlstad	1:1
30.07.22	Karlstad - Umeå	1:0
04.09.21	Karlstad - Umeå	4:0

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