Match Info

J2 League - Round 15

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Toyama Stadium (Toyama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kataller Toyama		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.4	Watch
	2.6	2.75	2.65
	3	2.95	2.48	Watch
	3.24	3.02	2.59
	3.06	2.87	2.56	Watch
	2.62	2.8	2.75
	2.99	3.01	2.49	Watch
	3	2.95	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.4)	2.92 ↓ (3.05)	2.55 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kataller Toyama
31.6%

Draw
31.9%

Oita Trinita
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

29.6%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

30.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kataller Toyama's form might have worsened.

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kataller Toyama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Kataller Toyama - Oita Trinita Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Kataller Toyama will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Oita Trinita will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kataller Toyama: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kataller Toyama (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Hirao T. (G) 88. Hama T. 41. Sakai S. 4. Kamiyama K. 28. Fuseya S. 8. Matsuoka D. 48. Ueda K. 16. Sueki H. 27. Yoshihira T. 10. Matsuda R. 58. Take H.	32. Hamada T. (G) 18. Nodake J. 31. Matheus Pereira 3. Derlan 44. Yoshida M. 25. Sakakibara K. 38. Amagasa T. 29. Utsumoto S. 9. Arima K. 10. Nomura N. 13. Isa K.
Substitutes
13. Fukazawa S. 17. Inoue N. 32. Mizoguchi S. 26. Nabeta A. 21. Okubo T. (G) 33. Takahashi Y. 14. Ura J. 9. Usui S. 2. Yoshida A.	21. Ayukawa S. 14. Ikeda R. 19. Kozakai A. 5. Nakagawa H. 24. Sato S. (G) 4. Satsukawa A. 16. Shige T. 30. Tone I. 15. Yashiki Y.
Coaches
Otagiri M.	Katanosaka T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Matsuoka D. ⚽, Yoshihira T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 1 - 1, Arima K. ⚽,
64', Matsuda R. ↓, Inoue N. ↑,
64', Take H. ↓, Usui S. ↑,
69', Utsumoto S. ↓, Satsukawa A. ↑,
75', Yoshihira T. ↓, Fukazawa S. ↑,
75', Matsuoka D. ↓, Takahashi Y. ↑,
76', Isa K. ↓, Ayukawa S. ↑,
76', Amagasa T. ↓, Kozakai A. ↑,
85', Yoshida M. ↓, Shige T. ↑,
85', Nomura N. ↓, Nakagawa H. ↑,
85', Fuseya S. ↓, Ura J. ↑,
90+1', Matheus Pereira 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 7).

Kataller Toyama is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Oita Trinita has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kataller Toyama won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Kataller Toyama won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
06.05.25	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama	2:2 ✺
29.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Montedio Yamagata	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Tokushima Vortis - Kataller Toyama	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Iwaki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTTLL
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
06.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	3:0 ✺
03.05.25	Oita Trinita - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
29.04.25	Oita Trinita - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
25.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	0:3 ✺
20.04.25	JEF United Chiba - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
14.09.14	Kataller Toyama - Oita Trinita	1:1
26.04.14	Oita Trinita - Kataller Toyama	3:0

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