Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium (Kawasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Georgia	Silk Universal
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Iraq	Al Rabiaa Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kyrgyzstan	KTRK Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Philippines	Matchday+
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sport 24 International
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Sport 2 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Kawasaki Frontale		Shanghai Shenhua

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	5.25	7.75	Watch
	1.41	4.8	6.4	Watch
	1.45	4.93	6.45
	1.42	4.89	6.43	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6.5
	1.43	5.12	6.4	Watch
	1.41	4.8	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.31)	4.91 ↓ (5.05)	6.62 ↓ (9.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kawasaki Frontale
66.7%

Draw
19.1%

Shanghai Shenhua
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.5%

18.5%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

16.7%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Shanghai Shenhua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shanghai Shenhua than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Kawasaki Frontale - Shanghai Shenhua Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Kawasaki will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Shanghai Shenhua will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shanghai Shenhua: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 5. Sasaki A. 2. Takai K. 35. Maruyama Y. 13. Miura S. 19. Kawahara S. 10. Oshima R. 37. Ito T. 14. Wakizaka Y. (C) 23. Marcinho 9. Erison	30. Bao Yaxiong (G) 13. Manafa W. 4. Jiang Shenglong 32. Fulangxisi Aidi 27. Chan Shinichi 23. Li Ke 43. Yang Haoyu 15. Wu Xi (C) 7. Xu Haoyang 10. Teixeira J. 73. Saulo Mineiro
Substitutes
21. Ando S. (G) 41. Ienaga A. 1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 7. Kurumaya S. 24. Miyagi T. 16. Ozeki Y. 30. Segawa Y. 31. van Wermeskerken S. 20. Yamada S. 77. Yamamoto Y.	17. Gao Tianyi 45. Han Jiawen 3. Jin Shunkai 34. Liu Chengyu 39. Liu Yujie 33. Wang Haijian 2. Wang Shilong 14. Xie Pengfei 22. Xue Qinghao (G) 16. Yang Zexiang 20. Yu Hanchao 41. Zhou Zhengkai (G)
Coaches
Hasebe S.	Slutski L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Sasaki A. ⚽, Kawahara S. (A),
42', Wakizaka Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
57', Chan Shinichi 🟨,
64', Xu Haoyang ↓, Liu Chengyu ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Erison ⚽, Sasaki A. (A),
65', Yang Haoyu ↓, Gao Tianyi ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Ito T. ⚽, Marcinho (A),
72', Oshima R. ↓, Yamamoto Y. ↑,
78', Erison ↓, Yamada S. ↑,
78', Ito T. ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
81', Li Ke ↓, Wang Haijian ↑,
81', Manafa W. ↓, Wang Shilong ↑,
85', Kawahara S. ↓, Tachibanada K. ↑,
85', Wakizaka Y. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
86', Wu Xi ↓, Yu Hanchao ↑,
90+1', 4 - 0, Marcinho ⚽, Segawa Y. (A),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Recent matches Kawasaki is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Shanghai Shenhua is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Shanghai Shenhua could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Shanghai Shenhua have a series of home games.

In this match Kawasaki is certain favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Kawasaki won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:3 (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kawasaki Frontale
AFC Champions League
05.03.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.03.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	0:1 ✺
26.02.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Kawasaki Frontale	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Central Coast Mariners	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTW
- Shanghai Shenhua
AFC Champions League
05.03.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
01.03.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Beijing Guoan	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Changchun Yatai	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Vissel Kobe	4:2 ✺
12.02.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Shanghai Shenhua	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
05.03.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0
23.10.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0

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