Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Shanghai Stadium (Shanghai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Iraq	Al Rabiaa Sport
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kyrgyzstan	KTRK Sports
Lithuania	Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play, Matchday+, Premier Football
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start
Saudi-arabia	SSC Sports Extra 1
Serbia	SportKlub 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Tving, tvN Sports
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Shanghai Shenhua		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.4	3.7	1.98	Watch
	3.6	3.35	2.02	Watch
	3.8	3.34	2.12
	3.75	3.32	2.01	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2
	4.09	3.25	2	Watch
	3.6	3.35	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.69 ↑ (3.14)	3.36 ↓ (3.54)	2.02 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shanghai Shenhua
25.5%

Draw
28%

Kawasaki Frontale
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

25.7%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shanghai Shenhua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Kawasaki Frontale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shanghai Shenhua than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	35.7%	50%

Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Shanghai Shenhua will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Kawasaki will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bao Yaxiong (G) 13. Manafa W. 4. Jiang Shenglong 32. Fulangxisi Aidi 27. Chan Shinichi 23. Li Ke 6. Amadou I. 15. Wu Xi 10. Teixeira J. 7. Xu Haoyang 34. Liu Chengyu	98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 2. Takai K. 35. Maruyama Y. 13. Miura S. 19. Kawahara S. 77. Yamamoto Y. 37. Ito T. 14. Wakizaka Y. 23. Marcinho 20. Yamada S.
Substitutes
17. Gao Tianyi 3. Jin Shunkai 39. Liu Yujie 73. Saulo Mineiro 33. Wang Haijian 2. Wang Shilong 14. Xie Pengfei 22. Xue Qinghao (G) 43. Yang Haoyu 16. Yang Zexiang 20. Yu Hanchao 41. Zhou Zhengkai (G)	21. Ando S. (G) 9. Erison 41. Ienaga A. 1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 32. Kanda S. 7. Kurumaya S. 24. Miyagi T. 16. Ozeki Y. 5. Sasaki A. 30. Segawa Y. 8. Tachibanada K. 15. Tanabe S.
Coaches
Slutski L.	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Li Ke 🟨,
43', Marcinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Xu Haoyang ↓, Yang Haoyu ↑,
46', Marcinho ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
59', van Wermeskerken S. ↓, Sasaki A. ↑,
69', Liu Chengyu ↓, Saulo Mineiro ↑,
72', Amadou I. ↓, Gao Tianyi ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Takai K. (Own goal),
80', Ito T. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
80', Yamada S. ↓, Erison ↑,
85', Yamamoto Y. ↓, Ozeki Y. ↑,
89', Wu Xi ↓, Wang Haijian ↑,
89', Manafa W. ↓, Yang Zexiang ↑,
90+3', Sasaki A. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Kawasaki could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Kawasaki will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Shanghai Shenhua won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Including matches at home between the teams Shanghai Shenhua won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shanghai Shenhua
Chinese Super League
01.03.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Beijing Guoan	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Changchun Yatai	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Vissel Kobe	4:2 ✺
12.02.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Shanghai Shenhua	1:0 ✺
Chinese Super Cup
07.02.25	Shanghai Port - Shanghai Shenhua	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWWLW
- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
01.03.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	0:1 ✺
26.02.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Kawasaki Frontale	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Central Coast Mariners	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
15.02.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Nagoya Grampus	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
23.10.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0

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