Match Info

J1 League - Round 38

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo		Albirex Niigata

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.55	Watch
	1.72	4	5.05
	1.7	3.88	4.86	Watch
	1.67	3.7	4.75
	1.69	3.83	5.04	Watch
	1.66	3.8	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.75)	3.82 ↑ (3.76)	4.86 ↑ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo
55.9%

Draw
24.7%

Albirex Niigata
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

25%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Tokyo - Albirex Niigata Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tokyo will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tokyo will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Hatano G. (G) 5. Nagatomo Y. 24. Scholz A. 3. Morishige M. 2. Muroya S. 22. Endo K. 8. Ko T. 37. Koizumi K. 7. Anzai S. 16. Sato K. 19. Marcelo Ryan	1. Fujita K. (G) 25. Fujiwara S. 5. Fitzgerald M. 15. Hayakawa F. 31. Horigome Y. 8. Shirai E. 41. Hasegawa M. 46. Kasai K. 14. Ohara M. 55. Moraes 65. Boudah A.
Substitutes
32. Doi K. 31. Kobayashi M. (G) 40. Marcos Guilherme 26. Nagakura M. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 30. Oka T. 99. Shirai K. 27. Tokiwa K.	22. Arai T. 35. Chiba K. 42. Hashimoto K. 4. Okamoto S. 30. Okumura J. 48. Otake Y. 33. Takagi Y. 21. Tashiro R. (G) 50. Uemura H.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.	Irie T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Moraes ⚽, Hasegawa M. (A),
33', Fitzgerald M. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Endo K. ⚽, Koizumi K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Muroya S. 🟨,
72', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
73', Anzai S. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
73', Moraes ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
73', Kasai K. ↓, Arai T. ↑,
85', Fitzgerald M. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
88', Sato K. ↓, Nagakura M. ↑,
88', Endo K. ↓, Marcos Guilherme ↑,
89', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
90+2', Shirai E. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

Niigata is Relegated to J2 League

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 4.

Tokyo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recently, Tokyo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Tokyo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Hashimoto K. (Calf Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Niigata: Danilo Gomes (Knee Injury) Hoshi Y. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 35:15. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 1.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
30.11.25	Vissel Kobe - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
15.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	2:0 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
09.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Tokyo - Fagiano Okayama	3:1 ✺
17.10.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 TLWWT
- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
30.11.25	Albirex Niigata - Kashiwa Reysol	1:3 ✺
08.11.25	Shonan Bellmare - Albirex Niigata	5:2 ✺
26.10.25	Albirex Niigata - Vissel Kobe	2:2 ✺
18.10.25	Tokyo Verdy - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
03.05.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo	2:3
13.07.24	Tokyo - Albirex Niigata	2:0
27.04.24	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo	1:3
11.11.23	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo	0:0
29.04.23	Tokyo - Albirex Niigata	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
11.07.18	Tokyo - Albirex Niigata	3:1
Japan J League Cup
09.05.18	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo	3:2

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