Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Machida Zelvia		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.98	Watch
	2.49	3.22	3.15
	2.42	3.21	3.05	Watch
	2.38	3	2.9
	2.41	3.15	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.37)	3.13 ↓ (3.48)	3.01 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
39%

Draw
29.9%

Tokyo
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

27.1%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

26.9%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Tokyo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	50%	20%

Machida Zelvia - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 6 - 30%). Tokyo will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 6. Mochizuki H. 3. Shoji G. (C) 5. Dresevic I. 88. Nakamura H. 23. Shirasaki R. 19. Nakayama Y. 26. Hayashi K. 8. Sento K. 7. Soma Y. 9. Fujio S.	1. Tanaka H. (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 42. Hashimoto K. 71. Yamada F. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 16. Sato K. 39. Nakagawa T.
Substitutes
24. Kim Min-Tae 49. Kuwayama K. 31. Lavi N. 16. Mae H. 11. Masuyama A. 13. Morita T. (G) 10. Na Sang-Ho 50. Okamura D. 99. Yengi T.	6. Bangnagande K. 4. Kimoto Y. 31. Kobayashi M. (G) 37. Koizumi K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 28. Nozawa L. 15. Omori R. 55. Otani D. C. 21. Sugawara Y.
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Shoji G. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Endo K. ⚽, Sato K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Fujio S. ↓, Yengi T. ↑,
46', Mochizuki H. ↓, Lavi N. ↑,
56', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
61', Nakagawa T. ↓, Marcelo Ryan ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Sato K. ⚽,
71', Hayashi K. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
71', Sento K. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
77', 0 - 3, Sato K. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Endo K. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
79', Muroya S. ↓, Koizumi K. ↑,
79', Yamada F. ↓, Otani D. C. ↑,
87', Sato K. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
90', Nakamura H. ↓, Masuyama A. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)).

Machida Zelvia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tokyo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Machida Zelvia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Erik (Red Card) Kikuchi R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Morishige M. (Muscle Injury) Nagatomo Y. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Machida	4	3	1	0	13:3	10	10
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Tokyo - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 33.02%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
28.03.26	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 penalties ✺
22.03.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	0:3 ✺
14.03.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.03.26	Machida Zelvia - Gangwon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWLWW
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	1:0 penalties ✺
18.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo	1:2 penalties ✺
07.03.26	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
15.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	2:0 ET
Japan J1 League
09.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	0:1
22.02.25	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1
09.11.24	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	3:0
21.04.24	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	1:2

Machida Zelvia - Tokyo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide