Match Info

1. Lig - Round 17

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Aktepe Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Tonusluoglu D. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tabii


	Keçiörengücü		Erokspor

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	2.9	Watch
	2.15	3.39	3.01
	2.2	3.61	3.14
	2.17	3.65	3	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.9
	2.19	3.3	2.94
	2.16	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.26)	3.45 ↓ (3.57)	2.98 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keçiörengücü
42.3%

Draw
26.8%

Erokspor
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

26%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

24.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keçiörengücü has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Erokspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erokspor than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Keçiörengücü - Erokspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Keçiörengücü will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Erokspor will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Keçiörengücü: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Erokspor will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Ozer A. (G) 10. Bulut H. 23. Mexer 5. Caliskan O. 11. Dere A. 14. Akdag I. 36. Karaogul I. 7. Roshi O. 78. Fernandes J. 21. Ezeh F. 55. Diouf M.	44. Oral E. A. (G) 17. Korkmaz E. 97. Cavare D. 14. Ulas O. 33. Alic E. 4. Kacar T. (C) 89. Amilton 5. Okyar M. 12. Kanga G. 73. Lus B. 10. Kayode O.
Substitutes
9. Akman A. 22. Ayan H. 17. Bilgic H. 4. Celik A. 6. Develi E. 73. Lus S. 19. Osman H. 77. Ozler T. 18. Satilmis E. (G) 15. Wellington Nascimento	7. Catakovic H. 11. Faye M. 80. Genc M. 23. Hidayetoglu A. 6. Jack R. 8. Karaman A. 41. Mehmet I. 20. Niyaz R. 15. Nzaba F.
Coaches
Kosukavak Y.	Ozkoylu O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Amilton 🟨,
41', Kacar T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
66', 1 - 0, Cavare D. (Own goal),
69', Bulut H. ↓, Bilgic H. ↑,
73', Kanga G. ↓, Catakovic H. ↑,
73', Kacar T. ↓, Jack R. ↑,
73', Lus B. ↓, Faye M. ↑,
80', Ezeh F. 🟨,
83', 1 - 1, Catakovic H. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Karaogul I. 🟨,
88', Diouf M. 🟨,
88', Cavare D. 🟨,
88', Roshi O. ↓, Ayan H. ↑,
90+2', Kayode O. ↓, Karaman A. ↑,
90+5', Akdag I. ↓, Develi E. ↑,
90+5', Fernandes J. ↓, Akman A. ↑,
90+6', Ezeh F. ↓, Lus S. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)).

Keçiörengücü is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Erokspor has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Keçiörengücü could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Keçiörengücü won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Erokspor - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.84%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
06.12.25	Serik Belediyespor - Keçiörengücü	1:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
02.12.25	Keçiörengücü - Kayserispor	2:0 ET ✺
Turkish First League
29.11.25	Keçiörengücü - Igdirspor	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Vanspor - Keçiörengücü	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Adana Demirspor - Keçiörengücü	2:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLTW
- Erokspor
Turkish First League
06.12.25	Erokspor - Sakaryaspor	4:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:5 ✺
Turkish First League
28.11.25	Amed SK - Erokspor	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Erokspor - Sivasspor	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Erzurumspor - Erokspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
05.03.25	Keçiörengücü - Erokspor	2:2
21.10.24	Erokspor - Keçiörengücü	2:2

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