Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 4 - Round 21

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Khimik Dzerzhinsk		Orenburg-2

	1	X	2
	1.24	4.45	14.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.38)	4.45 ↑ (4.3)	14.1 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
73.2%

Draw
20.4%

Orenburg-2
6.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

21.3%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

20.5%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Khimik Dzerzhinsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Khimik Dzerzhinsk's performance.

Orenburg-2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orenburg-2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Khimik Dzerzhinsk than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg-2 than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orenburg-2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Gruznov I. ⚽,
16', 2 - 0, Gruznov I. ⚽,
32', 2 - 1, Cherkasov D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 6).

Khimik Dzerzhinsk is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Orenburg-2's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Orenburg-2 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Khimik Dzerzhinsk is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Khimik Dzerzhinsk won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Khimik Dzerzhinsk won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Khimik	28	23	2	3	67:19	48	71

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Russian Cup
12.08.26	Khimik Dzerzhinsk - Nosta Novotroitsk	2:3 ✺
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 4
02.08.26	Khimik Dzerzhinsk - Nosta Novotroitsk	5:0 ✺
26.07.26	Dynamo Barnaul - Khimik Dzerzhinsk	0:4 ✺
12.07.26	Khimik Dzerzhinsk - Akron Tolyatti 2	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod - Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWWT
- FC Orenburg-2
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 4
02.08.26	KDV Tomsk - Orenburg-2	2:1 ✺
27.07.26	Orenburg-2 - Krylya Sovetov 2	0:0 ✺
12.07.26	Orenburg-2 - Rubin 2 Kazan	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Nosta Novotroitsk - Orenburg-2	1:0 ✺
01.07.26	Dynamo Barnaul - Orenburg-2	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 4
07.06.26	Orenburg-2 - Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1:2
28.09.25	Khimik Dzerzhinsk - Orenburg-2	0:0
22.06.25	Orenburg-2 - Khimik Dzerzhinsk	0:3

Upcoming Matches