What is the expert prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

How to watch Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa live?

Check our broadcast section for official streaming options and live coverage details.

Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, January 22, 2026)

Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ireland	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Max
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Fubo Sports Network, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus
World	Sport 24, VIX App


	Fenerbahçe		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.9
	2.45	3.5	2.7
	2.4	3.75	2.85
	2.72	3.55	2.33
	2.53	3.56	2.82
	2.38	3.4	2.7
	2.53	3.58	2.81
	2.37	3.6	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.71)	3.56 ↑ (3.43)	2.75 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
38.6%

Draw
26.8%

Aston Villa
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.7%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fenerbahçe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aston Villa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.8%	16.3%	27.9%

banner

Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 24 - 55.8%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 12 - 27.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 41% – 70.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aston Villa (2.07) (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.41) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.40) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Fenerbahçe (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 25 - 71.4%). Aston Villa (votes: 10 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 18. Muldur M. 7. Fred 5. Yuksek I. 45. Nene D. 21. Asensio M. 9. Akturkoglu K. 10. Duran J.	40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 12. Digne L. 26. Bogarde L. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Sancho J. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
11. Alvarez E. 70. Aydin O. 39. Biterge E. (G) 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 96. Karatas H. 4. Soyuncu C. 94. Talisca	16. Garcia A. 29. Guessand E. 53. Hemmings G. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 4. Konsa E. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 52. Proctor S. (G) 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G) 51. Young K.
Coaches
Tedesco D.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Sancho J. ⚽,
44', Nene D. 🟨,
45', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Digne L. 🟨,
56', Semedo N. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
56', Nene D. ↓, Talisca ↑,
73', Yuksek I. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
75', Buendia E. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
75', Cash M. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
75', Rogers M. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
75', Sancho J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
78', Lindelof V. 🟨,
79', Muldur M. 🟨,
88', Skriniar M. 🟨,
89', Tielemans Y. 🟨,
90+2', Tielemans Y. ↓, Hemmings G. ↑,
90+5', Bogarde L. 🟨,
90+8', Guessand E. 🟨,

Preview

Fenerbahçe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aston Villa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Brown A. (Injury) Elmaz B. (Inactive) Fall A. (Inactive) Guendouzi M. (Inactive) Gunok M. (Inactive) Mercan L. (Muscle Injury) Mor E. (Inactive) Musaba A. (Inactive) Szymanski S. (Groin Injury) Yandas M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Kamara B. (Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Onana A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: McGinn J. (Injury) Sancho J. (Illness)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

banner

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.76%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
18.01.26	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Beyoglu Yeni Carsi - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
10.01.26	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTWL

Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide