Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fenerbahçe		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.9
	2.45	3.5	2.7
	2.4	3.75	2.85
	2.72	3.55	2.33
	2.53	3.56	2.82
	2.38	3.4	2.7
	2.53	3.58	2.81
	2.37	3.6	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.71)	3.56 ↑ (3.43)	2.75 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
38.6%

Draw
26.8%

Aston Villa
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.7%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fenerbahçe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aston Villa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.8%	16.3%	27.9%

Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 24 - 55.8%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 12 - 27.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 41% – 70.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aston Villa (2.07) (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.41) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.40) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Fenerbahçe (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 21 - 67.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 10 - 32.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 18. Muldur M. 7. Fred 5. Yuksek I. 45. Nene D. 21. Asensio M. 9. Akturkoglu K. 10. Duran J.	40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 12. Digne L. 26. Bogarde L. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Sancho J. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
11. Alvarez E. 70. Aydin O. 39. Biterge E. (G) 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 96. Karatas H. 4. Soyuncu C. 94. Talisca	16. Garcia A. 29. Guessand E. 53. Hemmings G. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 4. Konsa E. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 52. Proctor S. (G) 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G) 51. Young K.
Coaches
Tedesco D.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Sancho J. ⚽,
44', Nene D. 🟨,
45', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Digne L. 🟨,
56', Semedo N. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
56', Nene D. ↓, Talisca ↑,
73', Yuksek I. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
75', Buendia E. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
75', Cash M. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
75', Rogers M. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
75', Sancho J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
78', Lindelof V. 🟨,
79', Muldur M. 🟨,
88', Skriniar M. 🟨,
89', Tielemans Y. 🟨,
90+2', Tielemans Y. ↓, Hemmings G. ↑,
90+5', Bogarde L. 🟨,
90+8', Guessand E. 🟨,

Preview

Fenerbahçe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aston Villa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Brown A. (Injury) Elmaz B. (Inactive) Fall A. (Inactive) Guendouzi M. (Inactive) Gunok M. (Inactive) Mercan L. (Muscle Injury) Mor E. (Inactive) Musaba A. (Inactive) Szymanski S. (Groin Injury) Yandas M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Kamara B. (Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Onana A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: McGinn J. (Injury) Sancho J. (Illness)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.76%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
18.01.26	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Beyoglu Yeni Carsi - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
10.01.26	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTWL

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