Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 12

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	LDU Quito		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	6.25	Watch
	1.41	4.33	6
	1.43	4.35	6.3	Watch
	1.45	4.62	6.99
	1.43	4.74	6.57	Watch
	1.4	4	6
	1.44	4.39	6.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.37)	4.42 ↑ (4.4)	6.42 ↓ (7.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
64.7%

Draw
20.9%

Guayaquil City
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

20.9%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

20.7%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

LDU Quito - Guayaquil City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Guayaquil City (6.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guayaquil City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valle G. (G) 14. Quintero J. (C) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 44. Segovia L. 33. Quinonez L. 23. Quinonez Y. 15. Villamil G. 8. Pretell J. 7. Redes R. 9. Medina J. 16. Deyverson	1. Napa G. (G) 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 15. Sambonino K. 20. Laurino S. 70. Mancilla P. 80. Gonzalez P. 10. Diaz D. 11. Mero E.
Substitutes
4. Ade R. 10. Alvarado A. 26. Caicedo J. 24. Calle J. 21. Castillo E. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 11. Estrada M. 32. Gomez A. 99. Luna Tobar C. 27. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 12. Villa A. (G)	21. Andrade J. M. 51. Cabezas E. 8. Humanante J. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 28. Vivar J.
Coaches
Tiago Nunes	Gavilanez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Medina J. (Penalty Awarded),
34', Mancilla P. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Deyverson (Penalty Awarded),
43', Pretell J. 🟨,
45+8', Villamil G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Valle G. 🟨,
58', Pretell J. ↓, Minda K. ↑,
58', Redes R. ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
69', Allala Menendez G. F. 🟨,
70', Deyverson ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
70', Quintero J. ↓, Ade R. ↑,
72', Mancilla P. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
77', Quinonez L. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
84', Estrada M. 🟨,
88', Caicedo J. 🟨,
90', Gonzalez P. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 4.

In recent matches, LDU Quito has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guayaquil City is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

LDU Quito may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, LDU Quito is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 12 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 38:14. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, LDU Quito won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:4. (average 2.5:0.4).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	LDU Quito	31	14	7	10	33:25	8	49

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Lanús - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Emelec - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Independiente del Valle - LDU Quito	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	LDU Quito - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLTWW
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.26	Guayaquil City - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
21.04.26	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	0:1 ✺
17.04.26	Emelec - Guayaquil City	1:3 ✺
12.04.26	Guayaquil City - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Guayaquil City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.09.23	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	2:0
09.04.23	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	1:2
15.10.22	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	2:0
21.05.22	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	2:2
02.10.21	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	3:1
17.04.21	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	2:2
21.11.20	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	1:1

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