The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Guayaquil City 30.9%
Draw 31.3%
Orense 37.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.2%
29.2%
27.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.8%
30.3%
26.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Guayaquil City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guayaquil City's form might have worsened.
Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orense's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (+13.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guayaquil City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-11.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
22.2%
44.4%
33.3%
Guayaquil City - Orense Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Guayaquil City will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Orense will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.
1. Napa G. (G) 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 70. Mancilla P. 80. Gonzalez P. 10. Diaz D. 11. Mero E.
12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 5. Lorenzo A. 45. Quinonez O. 15. Caicedo B. 7. Vasquez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S. 13. Mena A. 10. Burgoa V. 11. Herrera A.
Substitutes
8. Humanante J. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.
8. Armas D. 19. Bermudez M. 17. Caicedo E. 6. Callegari S. 53. Garces L. 26. Molina N. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 4. Quinonez S. 21. Rostagno G. 77. Vinan B.
Coaches
Gavilanez P.
Torres H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Caicedo B. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Mena A. ⚽, Vasquez S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Diaz D. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
72', Mancilla P. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
72', Arroyo D. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
73', Burgoa V. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
73', Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
85', Vasquez S. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
85', Mena A. ↓, Rostagno G. ↑,
87', Gonzalez P. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 2.
Guayaquil City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Orense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Orense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Guayaquil City won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
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Napa G. (G) 
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Palma M. 
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