Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 13

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Referee: Congo F. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Orense		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.4	6.25	Watch
	1.53	3.4	5.75
	1.55	3.6	5.9	Watch
	1.59	3.74	6.67
	1.59	3.56	6.45	Watch
	1.57	3.3	5.5
	1.58	3.65	6.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.62)	3.52 ↑ (3.43)	6.1 ↑ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orense
58.8%

Draw
26.1%

Leones del Norte
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

26.6%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

25.2%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Orense - Leones del Norte Predictions

Users Predictions: Orense will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 5. Lorenzo A. 4. Quinonez S. 15. Caicedo B. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S. 7. Vasquez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 10. Burgoa V. 13. Mena A. 11. Herrera A.	45. Nazareno L. (G) 2. Moran J. 23. Monserrat N. (C) 25. Kreiman B. 32. Aguas A. 5. Coppo T. 8. Velez C. 34. Portocarrero S. 99. Solano C. 6. Griffa E. 27. Caicedo Nestor
Substitutes
8. Armas D. 19. Bermudez M. 17. Caicedo E. 6. Callegari S. 9. Charpentier P. 53. Garces L. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 21. Rostagno G. 77. Vinan B.	40. Anangono J. 24. Angulo J. L. (G) 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 11. Caramuto M. 33. Chacon A. 16. De La Cruz M. 17. Mairongo J. 10. Mansilla A. 44. Mina K. 70. Pazmino D. 3. Vargas F.
Coaches
Torres H.	Mendez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Moran J. 🟨,
36', Burgoa V. 🟨,
45+5', Portocarrero S. 🟨,
45+7', Zambrano Pesantez E. S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, Burgoa V. ⚽, Herrera A. (A),
62', Coppo T. ↓, Anangono J. ↑,
62', Aguas A. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
62', Caicedo Nestor ↓, Mairongo J. ↑,
76', Monserrat N. 🟨,
79', Herrera A. (Penalty Awarded),
79', 2 - 0, Herrera A. ⚽,
80', Herrera A. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
82', Bermudez M. 🟨,
85', Vasquez S. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
85', Griffa E. ↓, Cabeza J. ↑,
86', Burgoa V. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
86', Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
88', Jaramilo R. ↓, Rostagno G. ↑,
90+3', Nazareno L. 🟨,
90+3', Solano C. ↓, De La Cruz M. ↑,
90+9', Pluas E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Orense is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leones del Norte has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Orense is considered a favorite.

We predict that Orense will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Orense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Orense	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Orense	1:3 ✺
18.04.26	Orense - Delfín	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Orense - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WTWTW
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Leones del Norte - Manta	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Leones del Norte - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Copa
21.08.25	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0

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