Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 22

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Brazil	16:00	Disney+
Mexico	13:00	Disney+
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Uruguay	16:00	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	La Luz		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.00	2.43
	2.82	3.05	2.67
	2.86	2.91	2.65	Watch
	2.75	2.7	2.6
	2.77	2.78	2.49
	2.75	2.75	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.7)	2.87 ↓ (3)	2.57 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
32.8%

Draw
31.8%

Plaza Colonia
35.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.2%

29.9%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

29.9%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

La Luz - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 1 - 0, ⚽,
76', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 10th and 6th).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

La Luz could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, La Luz has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:6 (averaging 0.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for La Luz against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:2 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Plaza Colonia	24	10	7	7	30:24	6	37
6	La Luz	24	9	7	8	24:25	-1	34

Last Results with these Odds

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 36.9%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.10.26	La Luz - River Plate Montevideo	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	Cerrito - La Luz	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Paysandú - La Luz	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	La Luz - Huracán Paso de la Arena	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWLWL
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguay Copa
07.10.26	Plaza Colonia - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.10.26	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
30.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Plaza Colonia	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Plaza Colonia - Paysandú	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.07.26	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	1:0
25.09.24	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	2:0
09.06.24	La Luz - Plaza Colonia	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.10.23	La Luz - Plaza Colonia	1:1
17.03.23	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	1:1

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