Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	La Unión		Estepona

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.1	4.8
	1.72	3.1	4.85
	1.68	3.22	5.53	Watch
	1.68	3.14	5.4
	1.68	3.14	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.41)	3.14 ↓ (3.6)	5.25 ↓ (8.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Unión
53.7%

Draw
29%

Estepona
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

25.1%

10.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

23.8%

10.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Unión has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that La Unión's form might have worsened.

Estepona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estepona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Unión than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for La Unión, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estepona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

La Unión - Estepona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Baradji S. ⚽,
8', 0 - 2, Tato R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 3, Caro J. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 17 in the zone Relegation).

La Unión is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Estepona has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

La Unión may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, La Unión is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, La Unión won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, La Unión won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CD Estepona	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Unión CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	UCAM Murcia - La Unión	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	La Unión - Yeclano Deportivo	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Águilas - La Unión	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	La Unión - CD Extremadura	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - La Unión	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTLWW
- CD Estepona
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Estepona - Almeria B	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Estepona - Puente Genil	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Melilla - Estepona	3:0 ✺
30.11.25	Estepona - Xerez Deportivo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Águilas - Estepona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.03.25	La Unión - Estepona	1:1
17.11.24	Estepona - La Unión	0:1
28.04.24	Estepona - La Unión	0:1
16.12.23	La Unión - Estepona	0:1

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