Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group - Round 23

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Lahden Stadion (Lahti)

Referee: Roth M. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Lahti		IFK Mariehamn

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.33	5.5	Watch
	1.55	4.10	5.50
	1.5	4.05	5.9	Watch
	1.54	4.4	6.36
	1.52	4.36	6.02	Watch
	1.51	4.3	6.3
	1.5	4.41	5.6	Watch
	1.48	4.2	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.39)	4.27 ↓ (4.67)	5.82 ↓ (7.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lahti
62%

Draw
21.9%

IFK Mariehamn
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

20%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2%

19.1%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lahti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lahti's form might have worsened.

IFK Mariehamn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lahti than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lahti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Lahti - IFK Mariehamn Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lahti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lahti will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Maukonen O. (G) 27. Yapi R. 5. Gianini Dantas N. (C) 4. Muller J. 25. Inkinen T. 8. Montiel C. 18. Cassubie Y. 10. Koskinen O. 77. Sarr M. 9. Lindholm A. 11. Martim Augusto	1. Lund K. (C) 5. Koivisto T. 2. Nurmi N. 53. Gyamfi F. 31. Ngulube S. 23. Widlund V. 8. Heyden J. 20. Patut E. 14. Bergvik A. 11. Svedberg J. 19. Jakobsen T.
Substitutes
14. Andersson E. 17. Belabid A. 12. Hakala A. (G) 7. Heikkinen D. 44. Jarvinen L. 28. Kabashi A. 20. Ojanen J. 41. Paalanen A. 6. Vehkonen V.	43. Andersson L. 12. Heino O. (G) 16. Huttunen A. 64. Hyvonen M. 26. Jansson M. 3. Soiniemi A. 18. Stroud A.
Coaches
Pereira G.	Bjorknesjo R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Lindholm A. ⚽, Montiel C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Heyden J. ↓, Andersson L. ↑,
61', Bergvik A. ↓, Hyvonen M. ↑,
61', Widlund V. ↓, Stroud A. ↑,
64', Martim Augusto ↓, Ojanen J. ↑,
64', Montiel C. ↓, Andersson E. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Stroud A. ⚽,
71', Nurmi N. 🟨,
75', Inkinen T. ↓, Vehkonen V. ↑,
80', Gyamfi F. 🟨,
81', Yapi R. 🟨,
83', Lindholm A. ↓, Belabid A. ↑,
83', Sarr M. ↓, Heikkinen D. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Ojanen J. ⚽, Vehkonen V. (A),
89', Muller J. 🟨,
90+2', Vehkonen V. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

Lahti is Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group )

Mariehamn is Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lahti won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Lahti is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Mariehamn: Dahlstrom S. (Injury) Lundberg A. (Injury) Monteiro R. (Injury) Nissinen J. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lahti won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lahti won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lahti
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.08.26	VPS Vaasa - Lahti	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	SJK - Lahti	0:0 ✺
16.08.26	Lahti - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Inter Turku - Lahti	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Lahti - FF Jaro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTLTW
- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.08.26	IFK Mariehamn - FF Jaro	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	KuPS Kuopio - IFK Mariehamn	2:4 ✺
15.08.26	IFK Mariehamn - SJK	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Ilves - IFK Mariehamn	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	TPS - IFK Mariehamn	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.8 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:2
Finnish Cup
26.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
10.05.26	Lahti - IFK Mariehamn	1:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
05.03.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	4:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.09.24	Lahti - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
18.08.24	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:0
12.05.24	Lahti - IFK Mariehamn	3:0

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