Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 18

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Veritas Stadion (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	TPS		IFK Mariehamn

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	5	Watch
	1.52	4.33	5.50
	1.55	4.15	5.4	Watch
	1.59	4.52	5.75
	1.53	4.49	5.68	Watch
	1.55	4.45	5.5
	1.57	4.28	5.1	Watch
	1.51	4.2	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.56)	4.33 ↑ (3.95)	5.39 ↑ (5.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
60.9%

Draw
21.7%

IFK Mariehamn
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

23.3%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

22.6%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

IFK Mariehamn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The ML Model estimate for TPS aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

TPS - IFK Mariehamn Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. TPS (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: TPS will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henriksson E. (G) 2. Haggstrom O. 14. Hradecky M. 24. Talo N. 15. Azongnitode C. 22. Zaal T. 26. Ikonen L. 10. Konkkola M. 29. Muzaci A. (C) 41. Anini S. 99. Visser K.	1. Lund K. (C) 28. Nissinen J. 5. Koivisto T. 3. Soiniemi A. 19. Gyamfi F. 18. Stroud A. 8. Heyden J. 22. Monteiro R. 20. Patut E. 15. Jakobsen T. 7. Larsson A.
Substitutes
12. Asula H. (G) 8. Coulibaly A. 20. Kauppila M. 4. Sairinen A. 17. Sihvonen A. 13. Tsirigotis T. 28. Vakiparta T. 11. Vauhkonen E. 44. Veinbergs N.	43. Andersson L. 14. Bergvik A. 16. Huttunen A. 9. Nunez W. 2. Nurmi N. 4. Richtner L. 32. Riikonen M. (G) 11. Widlund V.
Coaches
Pinol I.	Bjorknesjo R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Visser K. ⚽, Talo N. (A),
40', Anini S. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Anini S. ⚽, Konkkola M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Anini S. ↓, Vauhkonen E. ↑,
46', Nissinen J. ↓, Richtner L. ↑,
46', Jakobsen T. ↓, Bergvik A. ↑,
46', Koivisto T. ↓, Nurmi N. ↑,
46', Stroud A. ↓, Nunez W. ↑,
49', Soiniemi A. 🟨,
55', 3 - 0, Visser K. ⚽, Vauhkonen E. (A),
64', Gyamfi F. 🟨,
65', Ikonen L. ↓, Vakiparta T. ↑,
65', Visser K. ↓, Veinbergs N. ↑,
73', Patut E. 🟨,
76', Konkkola M. ↓, Kauppila M. ↑,
81', Heyden J. ↓, Widlund V. ↑,
84', Zaal T. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

Mariehamn is Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 0.

TPS has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mariehamn is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, TPS is considered a favorite.

There will not play in TPS: Karkulowski T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mariehamn: Dahlstrom S. (Inactive) Dosis N. (Inactive) Lundberg A. (Inactive) Ward K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in TPS: Ivanovic L. (Inactive) Turkki E. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:34. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.07.26	HJK - TPS	1:0 ✺
20.07.26	TPS - Ilves	1:3 ✺
11.07.26	TPS - Oulu	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	SJK - TPS	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	TPS - FF Jaro	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWLW
- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
25.07.26	IFK Mariehamn - Oulu	1:1 ✺
20.07.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:2 ✺
11.07.26	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	4:2 ✺
04.07.26	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	4:0 ✺
27.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Inter Turku	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.04.26	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
11.02.26	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:1
Finnish Cup
28.05.25	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	3:2 penalties
Club Friendly
27.03.21	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.09.20	TPS - IFK Mariehamn	1:1
16.08.20	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:0
Finnish Cup
02.02.20	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:1

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