Match Info

Recopa Sudamericana - Final

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Colombia	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Lanús		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.7	2.9	2.25	Watch
	3.55	2.88	2.22	Watch
	3.78	2.99	2.36
	3.87	3	2.2
	3.4	2.7	2.2
	4	2.95	2.21	Watch
	3.66	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (3.38)	2.92 ↓ (3.24)	2.24 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
25.5%

Draw
32.4%

Flamengo
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

28.6%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

28.1%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	33.3%	55.6%

Lanús - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Flamengo will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Flamengo (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 23. Carrera R. 19. Castillo R.	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 15. Carrascal J. 5. Pulgar E. 20. Lucas Paqueta 11. Everton 7. Luiz Araujo 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C)
Substitutes
25. Aquino D. 77. Besozzi L. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 35. De Jesus R. 37. De Martis T. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 16. Sepulveda M. 8. Watson F. N.	6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 51. Daniel Sales 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 81. Douglas Telles 22. Emerson Royal 52. Evertton Araujo 9. Pedro 16. Samuel Lino 44. Vitao
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Marcich S. 🟨,
58', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Pedro ↑,
58', Everton ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
66', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
66', Carrera R. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
77', Luiz Araujo ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Castillo R. ⚽, Marcich S. (A),
79', Carrascal J. 🟨,
82', Medina A. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
88', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
88', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Lanús has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Flamengo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Flamengo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lanús won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.02.26	Independiente - Lanús	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Lanús - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	2:2 ✺
29.01.26	Lanús - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	San Lorenzo - Lanús	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTTWW
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Flamengo - Sampaio Corrêa FE	7:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Flamengo - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Supercopa do Brasil
01.02.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
12.04.12	Flamengo - Lanús	3:0

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