Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.48
	2.48	3.67	2.54	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.5
	2.43	3.32	2.5
	2.45	3.6	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.47)	3.4 ↓ (3.72)	2.49 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
37%

Draw
26.7%

Lancaster City
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

24.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

24.3%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Ilkeston - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Parker S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 2 - 0, Parker S. ⚽,
60', 3 - 0, L'Varn B. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 6).

In recent matches, Ilkeston has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lancaster is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ilkeston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lancaster has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 2.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilkeston won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7:26	-19	7

Last Results with these Odds

Lancaster City - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.54%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
13.01.26	Whitby Town - Ilkeston	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Hyde United - Ilkeston	2:2 ✺
26.12.25	Ilkeston - Rushall Olympic	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWTWT
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
01.01.26	Workington - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Lancaster City - Bamber Bridge	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	United of Manchester - Lancaster City	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Warrington Rylands - Lancaster City	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Lancaster City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1
15.03.25	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	4:0
09.11.24	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	4:3
10.02.24	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	2:3
23.09.23	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	0:4

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