Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	Comteco, Cotegua, Coteor, Inter Satelital, Tigo Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	Silk Universal
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+ 1, #Vamos
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Inter
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Lanús		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.3	Watch
	2.35	2.9	3.25
	2.4	2.95	3.3	Watch
	2.46	2.91	3.53
	2.37	2.97	3.43	Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.2	Watch
	2.47	2.85	3.5	Watch
	2.4	2.95	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (3.86)	2.93 ↓ (3.4)	3.35 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lanús
39.6%

Draw
32.3%

Cruzeiro
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

27.4%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

25.6%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lanús's performance.

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lanús that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	60%	6.7%

Lanús - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 24. Caceres J. 2. Munoz E. 5. Izquierdoz C. (C) 4. Perez G. 22. Soler J. C. 10. Marcelino Moreno 8. Boggio L. 29. Pena Biafore F. 32. Carrera R. 9. Bou W.	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 43. Joao Marcelo 25. Villalba L. 3. Marlon 97. Matheus Henrique 20. Walace 29. Romero L. (C) 10. Matheus Pereira 30. Gabriel Veron 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
7. Acosta L. 1. Aguerre A. (G) 40. Alvarez F. 25. Aquino D. 20. Cabrera B. 34. Cardozo L. 18. Diaz L. 14. Gerez M. 19. Jara L. 28. Ontivero O. 17. Rodriguez A. 27. Torres J.	98. Anderson (G) 21. Barreal A. 26. Diaz L. 77. Japa 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 16. Lucas Silva 7. Mateus Vital 33. Peralta F. 17. Ramiro 2. Wesley Gasolina 5. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Zielinski R.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Kaio Jorge ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carrera R. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
57', Perez G. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
70', Boggio L. ↓, Alvarez F. ↑,
74', Cassio 🟨,
79', Kaio Jorge ↓, Ze Ivaldo ↑,
86', Romero L. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
86', Matheus Pereira ↓, Ramiro ↑,
86', Gabriel Veron ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
90+2', Pena Biafore F. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
90+5', Caceres J. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Lanús is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Cruzeiro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Lanús will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lanús won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.10.24	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.10.24	Cruzeiro - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.10.24	Lanús - Independiente	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Newells Old Boys - Lanús	2:1 ✺
30.09.24	Lanús - Gimnasia La Plata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLLT
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.10.24	Cruzeiro - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.24	Cruzeiro - Bahia	1:1 ✺
03.10.24	Fluminense - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
23.10.24	Cruzeiro - Lanús	1:1

Upcoming Matches