Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 7

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol


	Athletico Paranaense		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.2
	2.22	3.25	3.2
	2.3	3.36	3.38
	2.22	3.35	3.36	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.1
	2.24	3.31	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.74)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)	3.28 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
42.4%

Draw
28.8%

Cruzeiro
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

29.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

30.3%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Athletico PR (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 50%). Cruzeiro (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 27. Portilla J. 14. Luiz Gustavo 7. Mendoza S. 20. Julimar 53. Dudu Kogitzki 9. Viveros K.	31. Matheus Cunha (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 16. Lucas Silva (C) 8. Matheus Henrique 88. Christian 77. Japa 22. Villarreal N. 99. Arroyo K.
Substitutes
48. Bruninho 47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 16. Jadson 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto	44. Bruno Alves 91. Chico 23. Fagner 34. Jonathan Jesus 2. Kaua Moraes 36. Kaua Prates 57. Lelis R. 35. Murilo Rhikman 81. Otavio Costa (G) 40. Rhuan Gabriel 5. Walace 94. Wanderson
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Carvalho W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Mendoza S. ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, Viveros K. (Penalty Awarded),
19', Matheus Henrique 🟨,
44', Arroyo K. 🟨,
45+2', Julimar 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Japa ↓, Wanderson ↑,
56', Arthur Dias 🟨,
58', 2 - 1, Arroyo K. ⚽, Kaiki (A),
62', Julimar ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
62', Portilla J. ↓, Jadson ↑,
76', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Leozinho ↑,
78', Villarreal N. ↓, Chico ↑,
78', Christian ↓, Rhuan Gabriel ↑,
78', Mendoza S. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
85', Lucas Silva 🟨,
88', William Furtado ↓, Kaua Moraes ↑,
88', Lucas Silva ↓, Lelis R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.

Athletico PR has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cruzeiro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cruzeiro has had a series of home games.

Athletico PR will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Zapelli B. (Red Card)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Bruno Rodrigues (Inactive) Cassio (Injury) Kaio Jorge (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Matheus Pereira (Yellow Cards) Romero L. (Inactive) Sinisterra L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Luiz Gustavo (Injury) Teran C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 34.71%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Cruzeiro - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 36.03%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.26	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLT
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
11.03.26	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.03.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Cruzeiro - Pouso Alegre	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.10.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	3:0
26.06.24	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
30.11.23	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
29.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	3:3
06.11.19	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	0:0
27.07.19	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	0:2
10.11.18	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	2:0

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