Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Victoria Stadium (Gibraltar)

Referee: Tohver K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Lincoln Red Imps		Larne

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.30	3.70	Watch
	1.93	3.20	3.80
	1.98	3.30	3.50	Watch
	1.98	3.28	4.03
	1.97	3.44	3.94	Watch
	1.97	3.20	3.90
	1.99	3.44	3.86	Watch
	1.95	3.40	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.08)	3.32 ↓ (3.33)	3.82 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln Red Imps
47.5%

Draw
28.1%

Larne
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

27.9%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

23.9%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln Red Imps has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln Red Imps than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lincoln Red Imps that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Larne could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	15%	0%

Lincoln Red Imps - Larne Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.12) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Users Predictions: Lincoln Red Imps will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Hankins J. (G) 6. Lopes B. (C) 3. Rutjens C. 21. Nano 66. Eersteling J. 19. Flalhi Idrissi Y. 8. Mandi 23. Joe 10. Mula A. 32. Alvarez F. 44. Toledano M.	1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 26. Bent D. 3. Ridley M. 4. Donnelly A. 15. Doherty R. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 25. Sloan D. 45. Gibson M. 30. Lusty M.
Substitutes
20. Britto E. 5. Cardozo T. 7. Casciaro L. 17. Coulibaly A. 9. Gomez K. 27. Hamm M. (G) 2. Jolley E. 1. Nauzet Santana (G) 4. Pinto N. 11. Romero Morillo A. 22. Torrilla G.	16. Carney J. (G) 14. Magee B. 22. McEneff J. 7. McKendry C. 19. O'Hara K. 9. O'Neill P. 8. Randall M. 47. Simpson J. 17. Ukek J. 2. Wallace L.
Coaches
Pavon	Haveron G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Toledano M. 🟨,
27', Graham S. 🟨,
29', Flalhi Idrissi Y. 🟥,
43', Lusty M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', Mula A. ↓, Romero Morillo A. ↑,
57', Gibson M. 🟨,
59', Gibson M. ↓, O'Hara K. ↑,
68', Joe ↓, Torrilla G. ↑,
68', Toledano M. ↓, Gomez K. ↑,
68', Alvarez F. ↓, Cardozo T. ↑,
69', Gallagher C. ↓, McEneff J. ↑,
69', Graham S. ↓, Simpson J. ↑,
72', Torrilla G. 🟨,
73', McEneff J. 🟨,
76', Sloan D. ↓, McKendry C. ↑,
77', Lusty M. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
83', Mandi ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
85', 0 - 1, O'Neill P. ⚽, Simpson J. (A),
90+3', 0 - 2, O'Hara K. ⚽, O'Neill P. (A),

Preview

First leg.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Lincoln Red Imps will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lincoln Red Imps won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Lincoln Red Imps won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Lincoln Red Imps: 0.08%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Omonia - Lincoln Red Imps	1:0 ✺
06.08.26	Lincoln Red Imps - Omonia	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	Lincoln Red Imps - Mjällby	0:0 ✺
21.07.26	Mjällby - Lincoln Red Imps	3:0 ✺
14.07.26	Inter Escaldes - Lincoln Red Imps	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 LTTLT
- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
15.08.26	Coleraine - Larne	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.08.26	Iberia 1999 - Larne	2:1 AET ✺
04.08.26	Larne - Iberia 1999	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Larne	5:0 ✺
21.07.26	Larne - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
29.08.24	Larne - Lincoln Red Imps	3:1
22.08.24	Lincoln Red Imps - Larne	2:1

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